Before you fill your March Madness bracket, let me give you some pointers before you go all crazy and make dumb moves. The idea here is to beat your office pools and make some money at the same time, while you bet on sports. Primary rule: don’t outsmart yourself.

First, forget about outthinking every “expert” out there. Stop pretending you have watched all the regular season games, and that you have better info than them. You know you are not fooling anybody. With that said, pick three first rounds upsets, tops; ESPN has a “stats machine” that says March Madness predicts 3.4 upsets in the first and second rounds in this year’s tournament.

Here another situation, the most vulnerable Giants: Vanderbilt, Florida State and Baylor managed to avoid potential collisions with the top potential giant-killer, such as Belmont and VCU; so look deep in the potential matchups Here’s a likely upset special for you to consider:

West:
No. 12 Long Beach State over No. 5 New Mexico

Casper Ware is one of the most unique weapons in the tournament; he can create complicated matchups. Ware combined with T.J. Robinson could be too much for the Lobos.
South:
No. 9 Connecticut over No. 8 Iowa State

This is actually an easy one to see; I know because of the seeds it not necessarily a shocker, but is still an upset. I have UConn going deep.
East:
No. 10 West Virginia over No. 7 Gonzaga

West Virginia has a better squad than most of the experts give them credit. The trio of Kevin Jones, Darryl Bryant and Deniz Kilicli is pretty solid, and Gonzaga seems to be the kind of team that can suffer with them.