1. LSU keeps getting these big spreads
LSU football is an elite program, and when they play lesser opponents, it’s correct to assume that they will soundly defeat them. However, this does not mean that they’ll rack up huge points, as LSU is an elite defense attached to a replacement-level SEC offense. Last week, for example, they were favored heavily (-23.5) against Syracuse, a fast and explosive offense that LSU would do well to contain, let alone blow out. The Tigers did just that, soundly beating Syracuse 35-26. The margin fell well short of the spread but the game looked more or less as you’d expect when you have an elite defense going against a plucky but less talented offensive team. This week, they’re heavily favored (-20.5) against Troy, in a broadly similar scenario.
Betting Tip: To be clear, LSU’s idea of success is beating Alabama 9-6. They would win every game 9-6 if they were allowed to. Ed Orgeron does not care about the spread — the Tigers are 1-3 ATS — don’t expect them to cover a 20-point spread just for fun.
2. The line on the Dodgers keeps getting better
I swear the LA Dodgers are doing all this losing just for us. They clinched their division comfortably, but are putting on a losing streak heading towards the postseason that’s making the line on their World Series odds move way back from where it used to be. The line is now +300, with Cleveland at +350, which seems like a bargain for a team that was so dominant so recently and has coasted for the last weeks of the season. Kansas City had a losing record in September when they won the 2015 World Series, but the betting public is acting like a September slump is dooming the best team in baseball.
Betting Tip: The line’s just getting better and better; I’d say jump on it now, but if they keep this up, maybe they’ll be an underdog.