1. Five-set matches aren’t good for your health
US Open favorite and all-time great Roger Federer hasn’t had an easy ride through the first two rounds at Flushing Meadows. He took time off after the Roger’s Cup to heal his back and skipped a good portion of his US Open prep, and it’s showing. He played almost woefully against American teenager Frances Tiafoe, dropping his own service game to start the match and eventually losing the set 6-4. He then struggled through a fairly gruelling five-setter, only to do the same thing in his next match against Mikhail Youzhny. Those long matches are going to stress Federer’s body more than is necessary and perhaps more than is possible, and his many unforced errors and unconvincing serve aren’t exactly testimony to dominating form.
Betting tip: Federer’s listed at 9/4 on some sportsbooks, and with Rafael Nadal at 9/5, the Spaniard is by far the better value.
2. Financial Fair Play is not a thing
Just weeks after completing the most expensive transfer in football history, Paris Saint-Germain went and bought the player everyone was scrambling to get in the wake of Neymar’s move. Well, they haven’t bought Mbappe, that would violate Financial Fair Play, the rules that are supposed to limit exactly this sort of thing. They just loaned him, with a mandatory option to buy once it makes sense with the FFP rule. The fee is somewhere around €180 million, which would have been a record, had the Neymar trade not shattered the idea of financial limits in European football.
Betting tip: Well, PSG is listed at 7/1 to win the Champions League, and if they keep buying every good player on the continent, it’s hard to see how they’ll lose. You can point to the fact that they’ve never been past the quarterfinals. But the “they” in that sentence bares almost no resemblance to the team you’re about to see. Sometimes “trends” really don’t matter.