- Date & Location: Saturday, October 9 at T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas, NV
- Odds: Adam Kownacki (-280) vs. Robert Helenius (+220) via BetOnline
- Prediction: Kownacki via knockout
The third meeting between heavyweight boxers Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder was initially booked to take place on July 24 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV, but that fight was postponed after Fury tested positive for COVID-19 in July. The rescheduled scrap takes place on October 9. T-Mobile Arena hosts the highly anticipated scrap.
Before Fury and Wilder face off. another rematch takes place. That fight sees Robert Helenius face off against Adam Kownacki in a heavyweight scrap. In the first meeting between these two, which took place in March 2020, Helenius scored a fourth-round TKO win to capture the vacant WBA Gold heavyweight title.
Neither fighter has stepped into the ring since their first meeting.
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KOWNACKI vs. HELENIUS PREDICTION & PICK
The odds for the first fight between these two showed Helenius was not considered a threat to Kownacki. The closing odds had Kownacki as the -2500 favorite over Helenius, who was a +900 underdog. Bettors scored big on Helenius that night when he stopped Kownacki in the fourth stanza. The loss was a costly one, as Kownacki was reportedly in line for a WBA heavyweight title shot with a win.
The loss to Helenius was the first of Kownacki’s career and it hurt his standing a great deal. Perhaps he believed his own hype and overlooked his opponent, but like Anthony Joshua found out against Andy Ruiz in their first meeting, anything can happen in a boxing match, no matter the odds.
This fight could literally change the trajectory of the careers of both fighters. With that, I expect both men to be at their best. Because of that, I think Kownacki, who is the better boxer, will get the win in this rematch.
Prediction: Kownacki at -280 via SportsBetting.
BETTING VALUE WITH KOWNACKI
Kownacki presented no value in the first meeting between these two and while his value is still not all that great in the rematch, I think his chances of getting the win are high enough to justify a bet on him. If you compare the situation with Joshua and Ruiz, the odds in that rematch were similar to this rematch. Joshua won that fight by decision.
With Helenius’ win in the first fight, he has some value here as an underdog, but there is some risk in that bet, as I think Kownacki will look much better in this rematch.
Pick: Kownacki via knockout at -270 via BetUS.
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
In one way, the loss to Helenius will be good for Kownacki in this bout. He now has the knowledge he needs to figure out exactly where he went wrong in the first fight. The guessing game of an opponent he only saw on tape is gone. He has actual in-ring knowledge of his opponent and that is of enormous value.
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
With Oleksandr Usyk defeating Anthony Joshua to win WBA, IBF, WBO world heavyweight titles the call for a Fury vs. Joshua fight will cool. One reason for that is because Joshua was just outboxed and not stopped in a stunning upset knockout. The other, and more important, reason is that Usyk and Joshua will most likely face each other in a rematch for their next fights. With that, the winner of this fight could find themselves in talks to fight one of the main event competitors.
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