Trent Reinsmith
- Date & Location: Saturday, November 6 at MGM Grand in Las Vegas, NV
- Odds: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (-800) vs. Caleb Plant (+500) via BetOnline.
- Prediction: Alvarez via knockout
After a false start earlier this year, it seems as if the monster super middleweight matchup between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Caleb Plant is going to take place. Both men have agreed on Saturday, November 6 as the date of the fight, which will be presented by PBC and Canelo Promotions. The fight takes place at MGM Grand in Las Vegas.
Alvarez, who is the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter according to “The Ring,” puts his WBA, WBC and WBO super middleweight belts up for grabs, while Plant, who is the No. 2 rated super middleweight according to “The Ring” will have his IBF title on the line.
Alvarez, who is 31, has a career record of 56-1-2. The only loss on his resume is a 2-13 decision setback to Floyd Mayweather. The two draws on Alvarez’s record are a 2006 split draw with Jorge Juarez and a 2017 split draw with Gennady Golovkin. Alvarez defeated Golovkin in their 2018 rematch by majority decision. He is on a seven-fight winning streak, with his most recent win being an eighth round corner retirement victory over Billy Joe Saunders in May.
Plant, who is 29, has a perfect record of 21-0. He has successfully defended the IBF title three times since he won the belt from Jose Uzcategui in January 2019. Two of those wins were TKO victories. Plant is coming off a decision win over Caleb Truax in January.
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ALVAREZ VS. PLANT PREDICTION & PICK
If someone wants to argue that Alvarez is not the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world right now, you should be suspicious of that person. Since his draw with Golovkin, Alvarez has four stoppage wins, one unanimous decision and one split decision. The only opposition he struggled with at all during that run was Golovkin in their rematch. I don’t see him having an issue defeating Plant, unless Alvarez succumbs to the pressure of being the undisputed super middleweight champion. I don’t think that will happen.
Plant is a good fighter, but he is not on the level of Alvarez. The Mexican fighter will leave Vegas with another belt to his name.
Prediction: Alvarez -800 via SportsBetting.
BETTING VALUE WITH ALVAREZ
Alvarez has been a wrecking machine as of late. He has become much better with his head movement and his use of body strikes has become sublime. The odds of an Alvarez win are not very favorable, but a prop bet on a finish and the round will be a better value for Alvarez.
I think Alvarez will soften the body of Plant and get a knockout/TKO in the second half of the fight.
Plant does not have the power to score a knockout win, and he is likely to fight behind a jab in this bout. With his style and how good Alvarez has looked as of late, I think it’s a risk to put money down on Plant for the upset at the current odds.
Pick: Alvarez via knockout -1000 via Bovada.
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
Plant should be able to connect with jabs, but if they are slow, Alvarez is going to tear into him with powerful counters. Plant does his best work when his opponent does not counter him. Alvarez is not a fighter who will lie back and let Plant touch him up without a reply. I don’t see any spot in this matchup where Alvarez doesn’t have the advantage.
TALE OF THE TAPE: ALVAREZ VS. PLANT
| Canelo Alvarez | Category | Caleb Plant |
| 31 | Age | 29 |
| 56-1-2 | Record | 21-0 |
| 37 | Knockout Wins | 12 |
| 18 | Decision Wins | 9 |
| 2 | Draws | 0 |
| 5’8″ | Height | 6’1″ |
| 70 1/2″ | Reach | 74″ |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
A Plant win won’t be the biggest upset in boxing history, but it will be the biggest and most visible upset of 2021. It will also be a tremendous blow to the marketability of Alvarez. This fight reportedly represents the biggest payday of Alvarez’s career and a win over Plant will keep that money coming into for his next fight. When a fighter becomes the undisputed champion in a weight division and does so with little struggle, that is an immense achievement. That’s what’s on the line for Alvarez against Plant.
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