Trent Reinsmith
- Date & Location: May 8 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
- Odds: Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (-750) vs. Billy Joe Saunders (+475) via Bovada
- Prediction: Alvarez via decision
Officials are expecting a crowd of 60,000 to head to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the May 8 matchup between Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez and Billy Joe Saunders. The highly anticipated fight streams on DAZN.
Alvarez puts his WBC, WBA Super and Ring Magazine titles on the line on Cinco de Mayo weekend against Saunders, who puts his WBO strap and unbeaten pro record against the No. 1 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world.
Alvarez is on a 14-fight unbeaten streak since the only loss on his record, a 2013 majority decision defeat to Floyd Mayweather, Jr. During that stretch Alvarez has gone 13-0-1 with seven knockouts, six decisions, and a split draw. The draw came in a 2017 matchup opposite Gennady Golovkin. Alvarez defeated Golovkin in a 2018 rematch by majority decision.
Saunders is a perfect 30-0. The British fighter won the WBO super-middleweight strap in May 2019. He has defended that title twice.
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ALVAREZ vs. SAUNDERS PREDICTION & PICK
This could be an interesting fight, however, Alvarez is a substantial favorite for an excellent reason, he is the more skilled boxer. Saunders is elusive and tricky, but he lacks the power of his for and that’s an immense problem when facing someone like Alvarez. It will take Alvarez some time to figure out Saunders, but once he does, the tide of this matchup will shift completely to the side of Alvarez.
Saunders might frustrate Alvarez early, but once the Mexican fighter finds his rhythm, expect him to deliver hard and accurate body strikes that will sap the energy of Saunders. The best bet for Saunders is to fight behind his jab and stay as long as possible for as many rounds as he can. I don’t think Saunders will accomplish that long enough to score enough points to win this fight, but I do think he’ll do so long enough to avoid being knocked out.
Prediction: Alvarez at -700 via BetOnline.
BETTING VALUE WITH ALVAREZ
You’re going to have to look pretty hard to find odds that will make it worth picking Alvarez as a straight win in this bout. At -700, a bettor would win $14.29 on a $100 bet. At -750, the profit drops to $13.33. However, when you consider that Alvarez entered several of his recent fights at over -1000, it might be worth putting something down on Alvarez. As is always the case in fights with a huge underdog, it’s also not out of line to throw something down on the underdog, that is if you won’t really miss that money. Alvarez, who has 37 knockout wins in his career, could win this fight by stoppage, so that’s also a bet to consider, but I think the fight will go the distance.
Pick: Alvarez via decision -600 via BetUS.
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
Saunders’ biggest advantage will come in the early rounds when Alvarez works to figure out the southpaw style of his opponent and gets the timing and distance on Saunders’ jab. There will be some danger for Alvarez during this time, but with Saunders lacking knockout power, that danger is limited.
Once Alvarez figures out timing and space, he will dominate this fight. As Saunders slows, Alvarez will get inside and land to the body and move out of range before Saunders can respond and those powerful body blows will be the key to Alvarez getting the win.
FIGHT STATS: ALVAREZ vs. SAUNDERS
| Canelo Alvarez | Category | Billy Joe Saunders |
| 30 | Age | 31 |
| 55-1-2 | Record | 30-0 |
| 37 | Knockout Wins | 14 |
| 18 | Decision Wins | 16 |
| 2 | Draws | 0 |
| 5’8″ | Height | 5’11” |
| 168 | Weight | 168 |
| 70.5″ | Reach | 70.9″ |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
A win over Saunders puts Alvarez one fight away from becoming the first undisputed super-middleweight champion in boxing. If he defeats Saunders, Alvarez needs a win over Caleb Plant, who is the IBF super-middleweight champ, to unify the titles.
For Saunders, a win over Alvarez would be a huge upset. He is facing the longest odds of his career in this matchup.
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