Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas Boxing Picks

  • Date & Location: Saturday, April 16, 2022, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: Showtime pay-per-view

A welterweight title unification fight takes place on Saturday, April 16 when Errol Spence Jr., who holds the WBC and IBF welterweight belts, faces Yordenis Ugas, who owns the WBA welterweight crown. The fight takes place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas and will be broadcast via Showtime PPV.

This is the second fight for Spence since he was involved in a serious single-car accident in October 2019. Spence, who was not wearing a seatbelt when he wrecked his Ferrari in Dallas, was ejected from the vehicle and hospitalized in critical condition. Authorities later charged him with driving while intoxicated and he received probation. Spence defeated Danny Garcia in his comeback fight in October 2020. He won that fight by unanimous decision to retain his titles and move to 27-0.

Ugas, who is 27-4, is riding a four-fight winning streak. He is coming off an August 2021 unanimous decision victory in a fight where he stepped in on 11 days’ notice to face Manny Pacquiao at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Ugas closed as a +260 underdog in that fight. Ugas kept the WBA title he won in September 2020 with a win over Abel Ramos in the Pacquiao matchup. He replaced Spence in that matchup. Spence was unable to fight because of a retinal tear.

Before we look at this welterweight matchup, check out the best boxing betting sites and if you are interested in other combat sports, where you can find the best boxing picks. 

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas odds

Errol SpenceJr-450-450-450
Yordenis Ugas+325+325+325+365

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas prediction and pick

This is going to be a tough outing for Ugas. While Ugas beat Pacquiao by landing the more effective punches, he was outworked in that fight. I think Spence will do the same against Ugas in this fight by working behind his jab and being aggressive when the situation warrants it. By relying on his jab and using a smart and tactical approach, Spence won’t provide Ugas with the openings he needs to be effective as a counterstriker.

Of course, the worry in this fight is the same as the worry in the Spence vs. Garcia fight. Will the time away and the injury hurt Spence? I don’t think it will. Spence is just 32 and I think he has the heart, toughness and willpower to win the fight despite being out of action for so long.

I think this one goes the distance, and that Spence adds another title to his trophy case.

Pick: Spence to beat Ugas

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Betting value with Spence Jr.

To be clear, Ugas is a live underdog in this fight and just like in the Pacquiao fight, he has the tools to pull off the upset. With that, don’t be put off by the odds in favor of Spence if you have doubts about Spence’s ability to come back after another medical issue and a long time away from the ring.

I’m leaning Spence because of how he came back from time off to beat Garcia. Had that fight turned out differently or had Spence shown some weakness, I would lean toward Ugas, but Spence looked very good and that gives me confidence in his ability to stay unbeaten.

Prediction: Spence to win a very close and competitive decision.

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What’s at stake

It’s a longshot, but a win here from Spence could put fight fans one step closer to a unification bout with Terrance Crawford.

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He has written for USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.

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