by
- What: 98th Annual Academy Awards
- Where: Dolby Theatre, Hollywood, CA
- When: Sunday, March 15th, 2026
Has Timothée Chalamet ruined his chance at winning the Best Actor Oscar after his comments degrading ballet and opera? He was up to a -400 favorite to win the award after winning the Golden Globe for Best Actor last month. However, his momentum has stalled in recent weeks. He’s no longer favored at BetOnline or BetUS.
Timothée Chalamet is catching criticism for his recent comments about ballet and opera, where the Oscar nominee said the "no one cares" about the art forms. https://t.co/QP7fPnH1g0
— NBC News (@NBCNews) March 6, 2026
Chalamet lost at both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards). Michael B. Jordan’s win at the Actor Awards has vaulted him up the odds board. The remaining nominees should also be considered.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony takes place on March 15, 2026. The five Best Actor nominees are Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another, Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon, Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, and Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent.
While this race seems like it’s a two-horse contest between Chalamet and Jordan, we could be in for one of the tightest races in years.
Moura won Best Actor at Cannes and the Golden Globe award for Best Actor in a Drama. This is both Hawke and Jordan’s first Best Actor Oscar nomination. At just 30, Chalamet became the youngest actor to earn three nominations since Marlon Brando. DiCaprio has been nominated for the award six times.
Remember to peruse our OSCARS page to gather all the necessary information about the award show before placing any bet.
2026 Best Actor OSCARS odds
| Movie |  |  |  |
| Michael B. Jordan | -120 | -150 | +115 |
| Timothee Chalamet | +100 | +110 | -145 |
| Wagner Moura | +1200 | +1000 | +1600 |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | +1800 | +1200 | +1600 |
| Ethan Hawke | +3600 | +2000 | +3500 |
Michael B. Jordan
Jordan’s Best Actor nomination is one of 16 record-breaking nominations for the film Sinners. The Academy respects the film a ton. It was also a massive commercial hit, grossing over $369 million worldwide. When voters and the public love a movie this much, it usually ends in an award win.
Critics have praised his dual performance as twins Smoke and Stack in Sinners. Playing two distinct characters shows how versatile he really is. His momentum has really picked up in recent weeks. Considering he was north of +700 before the Actor Awards to win the Oscar.
Michael B. Jordan's Oscar odds soared after he won Best Actor at the SAG Awards.
18 of the last 20 SAG actors have gone on to win the Oscar
Powered by @polymarket pic.twitter.com/eL1uNGw8lX
— Complex (@Complex) March 3, 2026
Jordan’s now favored at some sportsbooks to win the Best Actor Oscar over Chalamet. Best Actor winners from the Actor Awards rarely lose on Oscar night. I agree with the latest boost to Jordan’s chances. His performance was much more impressive than Chalamet’s. I’d wager on Jordan winning this at +115 at Bovada.
Timothée Chalamet
Chalamet is trying to do something an actor hasn’t done since 2004. Sean Penn was the last actor to win the Best Actor Oscar after losing both the BAFTA and the Actor Award.
Despite recent setbacks, Chalamet remains very much in the hunt. His third Oscar nomination shows the Academy keeps taking him seriously as he grows as an actor. Few performers his age have built such a consistent awards track record. He remains one of the few actors of any age who can reliably open a movie.
Marty Supreme is about a table tennis player. It grossed over $173 million globally, making it A24’s highest-grossing film ever. Voters love to reward box-office success, and it would make sense for them to crown the generation’s biggest star.
Timothée Chalamet is the youngest actor ever to have 3 Oscar nominations since Marlon Brando back in 1954
See the full nominees list: https://t.co/IuSVQZPi7d pic.twitter.com/j1zETvjk2h
— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) January 22, 2026
That said, some voters see his performance as deliberately showy and full of virtuosity. In addition, his campaign has been explicit about the idea that he is owed an Oscar. His behavior seems enough to steer voters toward Jordan. I am passing on Chalamet’s chances of winning the Best Actor Oscar.
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Wagner Moura
Wagner Moura became the first Brazilian actor ever nominated for Best Actor. He’s a highly decorated nominee, having won Best Actor awards at the Cannes Film Festival, the New York Film Critics Circle, and the Golden Globe for Drama. He’s only the sixth Cannes Best Actor winner in 25 years to earn an Oscar nomination.
Of those six, two went on to win the Oscar. Critics have called The Secret Agent a masterwork of modern political cinema. The film follows a professor hiding during Brazil’s military dictatorship. If The Secret Agent wins Best International Feature, it would mark Brazil’s second consecutive win.
Wagner Moura wins Best Actor in a Motion Picture: Drama at the #GoldenGlobes for ‘THE SECRET AGENT’ pic.twitter.com/Ftr6bS6BZR
— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) January 12, 2026
The Academy’s growing international bloc would need to generate a wave of support to rally behind him. Not winning the BAFTA and the Actor Award limits his chances of winning the Oscar. At +1600 at Bovada, it’s worth a shot on this dark horse; I’d take that bet.
Leonardo DiCaprio
DiCaprio’s legacy commands respect from voters. He enters this race as one of the most nominated actors alive. This is his eighth overall Oscar nomination and his sixth for Best Actor. Those six Best Actor nods tie him with Richard Burton and Daniel Day-Lewis for the most ever.
One Battle After Another earned 13 Oscar nominations. DiCaprio anchors the film with a magnetic performance as a washed-up activist. His co-star, Sean Penn, is favored for Best Supporting Actor, and the same film rarely wins both awards. DiCaprio already has one Oscar, which is another factor working against him.
Leonardo DiCaprio’s been screwed over by @TheAcademy enough times in my life already. When will it end?? I like Timothée. I love Ethan Hawke. But none of this year’s performances compare to Leo. He should win this year’s #Oscar by a country mile. Has everyone lost their mind? https://t.co/9lZtiBZhFE pic.twitter.com/GdKfdQEcFq
— Cinema Tweets (@CinemaTweets1) February 15, 2026
While One Battle After Another won the Producers Guild Award for Best Picture and is heavily favored to win Best Picture, I don’t think DiCaprio is in legitimate conversation for this award, so I’d pass on him to win.
Ethan Hawke
Hawke is another actor whose legacy has been impressive and deserves admiration as well. This is his fifth overall Oscar nomination and his first ever for Best Actor. His previous nods came for supporting roles and co-writing screenplays, all with Richard Linklater. The pair reunited for Blue Moon.
Ethan Hawke as Lorenz Hart in BLUE MOON. Nominated for Actor in a Leading Role at the 98th Oscars.
Watch the #Oscars LIVE on Sunday, March 15th, at 7e/4p on ABC and Hulu. #OnlyAtTheOscars pic.twitter.com/NF4COm6M2g
— The Academy (@TheAcademy) March 4, 2026
Blue Moon received only two Oscar nominations in total, suggesting the Academy isn’t too thrilled with it. Hawke has four nominations but has never won. While the Academy would love to surprise everyone and reward Hawke, it doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards.
Oddsmakers have priced him as a true long shot at +3600 to win. The implied probability is just over 2% for Hawke to win. I have to pass when the numbers are that lopsided.
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