2023 Academy Awards: Early Picks for Best Picture Oscar

  • Bovada has early odds on major Oscar categories such as Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director
  • Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans (+120) is the early frontrunner in the Best Picture race
  • The 95th annual Academy Awards will be broadcast on ABC on March 12, 2023 in Los Angeles, California

While the 2023 Academy Awards is still three months away, the Oscar race is very much on. Most of the Best Picture hopefuls have already been screened by critics and will be coming to theaters near you over the holiday season.

Before we check out the full list of Best Picture contenders, check out the top betting sites for Entertainment in 2022 with predictions on which character will be the killer in the new Knives Out sequel ‘Glass Onion’.

Best Picture Odds

The Fabelmans+120
Everything Everywhere All At Once+500
The Banshees of Inisherin+1000
Women Talking+1000
She Said+1200
Empire of Light+1500
The Woman King+1500
Top Gun: Maverick+1600
Avatar: The Way of the Water+3300

Fabelmans favored early

The Fabelmans (+120) is a semi-autobiography based on Steven Spielberg’s own childhood. While the film couldn’t sound more boring, the Academy may choose to honor the legendary director with his fourth Academy Award. The 76-year-old’s only win in the ‘Best Picture’ category came almost 30 years ago (1993) for Schindler’s List.

Babylon (+400) is next on the board. It’s from Damien Chazelle, who won Best Director for La La Land in 2017 and stars Margot Robbie and Brad Pitt. The movie is quintessential Oscar bait as it celebrates Hollywood history. However, Babylon could be a bad bet. It isn’t listed as a serious contender by major publications such as Variety, Entertainment Weekly and the Los Angeles Times.

Box office hits

The Academy has recognized big-budget hits with nominations in recent years. But they rarely if ever win Best Picture. That could change as soon as this spring with the success of Top Gun: Maverick (+1600). Having already earned $1.5 billion US at the box office, the jet-fueled mega-hit was recently named ‘Best Film’ by the 2022 National Board of Review.

While you can safely ignore popcorn fare like The Woman King (+1500), Elvis (+3000) and Avatar: The Way of the Water (+3300), Tom Cruise’s expertly-crafted crowd pleaser could take home the hardware.

The FabelmansBest Picture
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TarBest Picture
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Other Oscar Contenders

Everything Everywhere All At Once (+500) is an extremely original sci-fi story with Asian American immigrant heroes. Yet, it’s the kind of film that is usually recognized with a ‘Best Original Screenplay’ award.

Tár (+1000) captured the prestigious New York Film Critics Circle Award on Dec. 2. The first film from acclaimed director Todd Field (In the Bedroom) in 15 years, it stars two-time Oscar winner Cate Blanchett. 

The Banshees of Inisherin (+1000) comes from Martin McDonagh, the director of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. That flick won Oscars for both Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell. Reviews have been strong for this one too, as it reunites Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleason, the stars of In Bruges.

Women Talking (+1000) could make Sarah Polley the third woman in a row to win the Best Director Oscar. The dark subject matter (women in a religious colony being systematically preyed upon by the men) likely makes it a stretch to win Best Picture.

Best bet

Since we’re early in the awards race, why not take a big swing with a sure thing? Top Gun: Maverick (+1500) is not the kind of film that usually wins the Oscar. But, given it’s staggering critical and commercial success, perhaps the Academy chooses to award Tom Cruise and company for keeping cinemas alive in what has otherwise been a dark time for the movie business.

Top Gun: MaverickBest Picture
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Steve Starr

Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.