Can Verstappen complete epic Driver’s Championship comeback at Abu Dhabi?

  • What: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
  • When: December 5-7, 2025
  • Time:  4:30 a.m. EST
  • Where: Yas Marina Circuit, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Formula 1 heads to the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix with the Drivers’ Championship on the line, marking the first time since 2010 that three drivers will contest the title at the final race. Lando Norris leads the standings by just 12 points over Max Verstappen, with Oscar Piastri trailing by 18 points in a dramatic championship climax.

Norris will clinch his maiden world title if he wins the race, regardless of where his rivals finish. The McLaren driver enters as the favorite but faces immense pressure after Verstappen’s crucial Qatar victory kept the Dutchman’s title defense alive.

Verstappen needs to win in Abu Dhabi and for Norris to finish fourth or lower to claim an unprecedented comeback, having trailed by over 100 points earlier in the season.

Piastri must win the race, outscore Norris by at least 16 points, and finish at least four points ahead of Verstappen to claim the championship. The Australian qualified on pole in Qatar, showing he has the pace to challenge.

Before we look at the latest betting odds of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, check out the top Formula 1 betting sites in 2025.

2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Odds

To Win 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand PrixBetOnline Sportsbook & Casino Review 2026BetUS Sportsbook Review 2026Bovada Sportsbook Review 2026
Max Verstappen+150+135+135
Lando Norris+250+225+225
Oscar Piastri+300+335+325
George Russell+1200+1000+1000
Kimi Antonelli+2000+1400+1800
Charles Leclerc+2500+2500+1600
Lewis Hamilton+4000+4000+4000
Carlos Sainz+25000+25000+25000
Isack Hadjar+25000+40000+40000
Fernando Alonso+25000+40000+40000
Oliver Bearman+50000+40000+40000
Alex Albon+50000+50000+40000
Yuki Tsunoda+25000+50000+50000
Liam Lawson+50000+50000+50000
Esteban Ocon+50000+50000+50000
Nico Hulkenberg+50000+50000+50000
Gabriel Bortoleto+50000+50000+50000
Lance Stroll+100000+50000+50000
Pierre Gasly+100000+50000+50000
Franco Colapinto+100000+50000+50000

Max Verstappen

Despite the difficult path, Max Verstappen is the betting favorite to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. The Dutchman has been the top driver since the summer break, winning five of his last eight races to orchestrate one of F1’s most remarkable comebacks. What looked impossible in August, when he trailed by over 100 points, now sits tantalizingly within reach.

The Yas Marina Circuit suits Red Bull’s strengths, providing rear stability and sharp traction out of slow corners—exactly where Verstappen excels. His recent Qatar win, earned through team strategy and individual brilliance, showed his championship mentality under pressure.

This will be only the second final-race title showdown of Verstappen’s career after the infamous Abu Dhabi 2021 battle with Lewis Hamilton, and his experience in these high-stakes moments could prove decisive.

The four-time champion knows exactly what’s required: victory combined with a Norris slip-up. With momentum firmly on his side, Verstappen enters Sunday as the man most likely to stand on the top step and complete one of motorsport’s greatest championship heists.

I would bet on Verstappen to win this race and do everything he can to complete this historic comeback.

Max VerstappenTO WIN 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
★★★★★
+150
Bet now

All our odds are taken from the best sites for F1 betting. You can read more about them on our How to Bet on Formula 1 online page.

Lando Norris

Despite Qatar’s strategic disaster, Norris stays in the championship driver’s seat with the easiest path to glory. A podium finish secures him the title regardless of his rivals, and even a win from Verstappen or Piastri is irrelevant if he finishes third. The math is in his favor.

If Norris ties on points with his rivals, he wins the championship on countback, thanks to eight second-place finishes versus Verstappen’s six and Piastri’s four. This safety net provides psychological cushioning heading into Abu Dhabi.

However, the scars from Qatar linger. McLaren’s questionable strategy call to keep both drivers out during the early Safety Car proved costly, turning what should have been a title-clinching moment into a nail-biting finale.

Norris must now manage not just external pressure from his rivals but internal questions about whether his team will make the right calls when it matters most. The 25-year-old has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season but has also made critical errors that have kept this championship alive far longer than it should have been.

The pitfalls the McLaren team has made this season really shouldn’t be rewarded, but it is difficult to see Norris not taking care of business and finishing on the podium in this race.

FINAL PREDICTION: I would not bet on Norris to win this race, but I believe he will be the driver who wins the Championship. 

Lando NorrisTO WIN 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
★★★★★
+225
Bet now

Oscar Piastri

Oscar Piastri remains the longest shot of the three contenders, priced at +1200 to win the championship despite being just 16 points behind Norris.

The math is brutal for the Australian: he must win the race and hope Norris finishes sixth or lower, with Verstappen’s result irrelevant in that scenario. If Piastri finishes second, he needs Norris tenth or worse and Verstappen fourth or lower—a nearly impossible combination of results.

The timing couldn’t be worse for Piastri’s momentum. He must sit out FP1 in Abu Dhabi, surrendering his car to reserve driver Pato O’Ward to fulfill McLaren’s rookie running requirements, sacrificing crucial track time at the most pressure-packed moment of his career.

While Piastri called Qatar one of his strongest F1 weekends after taking pole position, missing opening practice could leave him a step behind his rivals in setup optimization and track evolution, understanding when every millisecond matters.

Piastri has had an impressive season; however, without the extra practice sessions and time on the track, I don’t like his chances and wouldn’t bet on him winning this race. 

Oscar PiastriTO WIN 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
★★★★★
+335
Bet now

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Tony Reyes

Tony is a pro sports journalist who dedicates most of his free time to watching the latest matches and games on TV. When he's not participating in sports-related activities or seeing his friends, Tony enjoys outdoor activities such as hiking, cycling, and basketball. In addition to being a sports expert, Tony has extensive knowledge of finances and accou...

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