Pick Lewis Hamilton to upset favored Max Verstappen at Azerbaijan GP

  • What: Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
  • When: Sunday, April 30, 2023, at 7 am EST 
  • Where: Baku City Circuit, Baku, Azerbaijan


Formula 1 returns from its month-long hiatus with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. There hasn’t been a race in over 3 weeks, which is the longest break on the F1 calendar. Let’s break down some of our Azerbaijan Grand Prix picks.

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Picking up where the F1 season left off after the Australian Grand Prix, it appears that Max Verstappen and Red Bull have raced out to a sizable lead in both the Drivers Championship and Constructors Championship.

Oddsmakers tend to agree that Max and Red Bull are massive favorites for this race. If their history is any indication, it feels like this could be another Red Bull victory.


However, no driver has won this race twice, so let’s take a closer look at the track and some of the other teams that could end the weekend in victory lane.

Baku City Circuit

The Grand Prix in Baku is a street circuit that’s been on the calendar since 2016.

The tight and twisty course runs along the Baku shoreline, then loops into the city’s narrow, winding Icheri Sheher old town, and then through Baku’s medieval city walls. The circuit is very picturesque as you can see below.


DriverBetUS ReviewBetOnline ReviewBovada
Max Verstappen-275-240-275
Sergio Perez+360+550+450
Fernando Alonso+900+1200+1100
Lewis Hamilton+1200+1200+1200
Charles Leclerc+2500+2500+2200
Carlos Sainz+3300+3300+4000
George Russell+2800+2800+2800
Lance Stroll+8000+6600+9500
Esteban Ocon+25000+25000+30000
Pierre Gasly+25000+25000+38000
Lando Norris+50000+75000+30000
Oscar Piastri+50000+10000+100000
Kevin Magnussen+50000+100000+100000
Valtteri Bottas+50000+100000+150000
Guanyu Zhou+50000+200000+150000
Nico Hulkenberg+50000+100000+125000
Nyck de Vries+50000+200000+200000
Alex Albon+50000+100000+100000
Yuki Tsunoda+50000+150000+100000
Logan Sargeant+50000+200000+200000

Baku City Circuit is unlike typical street circuits due to the exceptionally high speeds in straightaway sections. The Drivers can maintain maximum speed for over two kilometers during the stretch from turn 16 to the pit.

We are also in for a change in this race. The Baku race will be the first one to introduce racing sprints. A ‘Sprint Shootout’ will decide the grid for the Sprint and after Friday’s qualifying will provide the Grand Prix order.

Saturday afternoon the sprint will run for 17 laps and take around 20 minutes. Points are up for grabs as the first place gets eight points descending to one for P8. Both drivers and teams will be awarded points for their championship races.

Aston Martin

The top team and competition for Red Bull racing have been Aston Martin this season. Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll are in striking distance of Red Bull in both the Drivers Championship and Constructors Championship.

Alonso finished seventh at this race last year when he was racing for Alpine. The Aston Martin team provides a much better car so it’s understandable that Alonso has the third-best odds to win this race at +1100.

I could see Alonso finish on the podium but I have my reservations about picking him to win outright.

I wouldn’t recommend betting on Fernando Alonso to win this race.

Fernando AlonsoTo win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
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There hasn’t been much that has gone right for Ferrari this season other than their success in qualifying. It’s safe to say they’ve had a disappointing start to their season.

After what we’ve seen from the Ferrari team this season I would avoid betting on them at all costs. No odds are enticing enough for me to advise backing them.

Perhaps they get a few points from the sprint, but I don’t see Ferrari being anywhere near the podium on Sunday.

I would not recommend betting on Charles Leclerc or Carlos Sainz to win this race.

Charles LeclercTo win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
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Carlos SainzTo win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
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This seems like the team that’s going to surprise this weekend. I know they took advantage of the time off after the Australian GP.

Team Principal Toto Wolff is too talented and determined to allow the Mercedes team to continue finishing behind Red Bull.

Hamilton won the race in 2018 in Baku but has struggled lately. This is the weekend that changes. The team has made upgrades to the car and I think they’re going to put them back on top of the grid.

Mercedes team is steadily improving this season and I think Hamilton wins at Baku. The fourth-best odds at +1200 are tantalizing.

I would recommend betting on Lewis Hamilton to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

Lewis HamiltonTo win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
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Best Bet

There’s no value in betting on Max Verstappen or Red Bull to win this weekend.

The best bet in this race is backing Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

Lewis HamiltonTo win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
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Tony Reyes

Tony is an avid sports fan and a pro sports journalist who dedicates most of his free time to watching the latest matches and games on TV. When he's not indulging in sports-related activities or seeing his friends, Tony finds joy in outdoor activities such as hiking, cycling, and playing basketball. In addition to being a sports expert, Tony has extensive knowledge in finances and accounting. He leverages this expertise to provide insightful betting analysis for women's basketball, identifying value based on overlooked factors.