2018 US Ryder Cup Team Selection Odds: Tiger Woods Nearly Certain

  • The US Ryder Cup team will be announced on September 9th, after the BMW Championship
  • Eight players have locked up spots on the team, and three more have all but guaranteed their trips to Paris
  • Who will get the last captain’s pick?

The US Team is just a week and a half away from announcing its 2018 Ryder Cup team, who will travel to Paris and play the European team from September 28th to September 30th.

2018 Ryder Cup Selection

Eight players are a lock for the US team, and the captain’s picks are mostly obvious. Here are the eight US players guaranteed a spot on the team:

Rank Player
1 Brooks Koepka
2 Dustin Johnson
3 Justin Thomas
4 Patrick Reed
5 Bubba Watson
6 Jordan Spieth
7 Rickie Fowler
8 Webb Simpson

Of particular note in that group is Patrick Reed, without whom the Ryder Cup would not be worth watching.

Here are the top four golfers on the the bubble:

Rank Player
9 Bryson DeChambeau
10 Phil Mickelson
11 Tiger Woods
12 Xander Schauffele

Of those four, you have to figure that Tiger Woods and Bryson DeChambeau are almost certain to get captain’s picks. Bryson’s one of the hottest players on tour right now, won at last weekend at the Northern Trust, and Tiger Woods is Tiger Woods. It’s similarly difficult to imagine Phil getting left behind, but it’s certainly not impossible.

That leaves one spot that’s up for grabs. Xander Schauffele is next up on points, but could not be a more under-the-radar player. There’s going to be huge temptation to take someone more exciting or marketable, whether its the beloved Kevin Kisner, the promising Tony Finau, or Kyle Stanley.

Odds to make 2018 Ryder Cup Team:

Player Points Rank Odds to Make Team
Bryson DeChambeau 9 1/19
Tiger Woods 11 1/9
Phil Mickelson 10 1/4
Xander Schauffele 12 EVEN
Tony Finau 15 4/1
Kevin Kisner 13 4/1
Matt Kuchar 14 9/1

As we said, the top three on the bubble are near certainties. That fourth pick, however, is up to Jim Furyk. Xander Schauffele will point to his T2 finish at The Open, a position he shares with Kevin Kisner, and more or less hope Furyk hasn’t watched him play since then.

Tony Finau’s outright second at the Northern Trust will be his biggest selling point, but his performance at the PGA left something to be desired. If the idea of a late captain’s pick is to include someone on a hot streak, then Matt Kuchar shouldn’t make it, as he’s had a lot of disappointing results recently.

With just two events left, it’ll be interesting to see how players in the hunt respond to the pressure. Bryson DeChambeau proved a lot by winning the Northern Trust, and the last spot on the US Ryder cup team could come down to the last round at the BMW Championship.

2018 Ryder Cup Odds

Team Odds to Win 2018 Ryder Cup
Team Europe 10/13
Team USA 13/10

But who will actually win? That’s hard to say. It’s important to note that the host country has an almost unfair number of advantages, from influencing course maintenance to working on pin sheets. Ask Paul Azinger about how to win a Ryder Cup at home and he will gladly tell you.

The US has some advantages of its own, mostly to due to talent. Six of the top ten players in the world in Strokes Gained are on the US Team, including the top two. The European team is a murderer’s row in its own right, but this US team is stacked. It also could feature three of the top four players from this year’s Dell Technologies Match Play, including the winner.

Geoff Johnson

MTS co-founder Geoff Johnson is a lifelong Mets fan, something he can't do anything about. He has a great track record when it comes to wagering on baseball – largely because he's more than willing to bet against the Mets. His career profits are impressive, but not quite as good as his handsome friend Frank Lorenzo. He wishes he hadn't let Frank write his profile.