PGA Tour Odds 2016 – Day, Spieth, McIlroy Set for Year-long War

With the 2016 PGA season about to kick into high-gear tomorrow at the 80th edition of the Masters, it’s time to forecast what lies ahead at all four majors.

Even though reigning Masters champ Jordan Spieth isn’t off to the same rip-roaring start as last year, he remains one of the three heavyweights at the top of the odds for golf’s biggest tournaments. Joining him are new world no. 1 Jason Day and a healthy and resurgent Rory McIlroy, who just needs to win the Masters to complete the career grand slam.

If Rory wins at Augusta (or if Phil Mickelson claims the US Open at Oakmont), they’ll become just the sixth golfer in history to win all four majors.  (Sorry, Bobby Jones, but you never won the Masters. I don’t care if it didn’t exist yet.)

The most recent man to etch his name onto that short list was, of course, Tiger Woods. At the end of 2015, some speculated that Le Tigre would retire after a couple down, injury-plagued years. But he’s only 40 years old, remember, and still has plenty of time to rebuild his body and his game. (He will miss the Masters with a back injury, though, which isn’t a great start.)

Below, we not only set the odds for the 2016 majors, but also look at the prognosis (golf, not medical) for Tiger.

To the numbers!

2016 PGA Tour Odds

Odds to win the Masters

Jason Day: 17/2

Jordan Spieth (defending champion): 21/2

Rory McIlroy: 11/1

Bubba Watson: 15/1

Rickie Fowler: 18/1

Justin Rose: 20/1

Adam Scott: 20/1

Dustin Johnson: 25/1

Henrik Stenson: 25/1

Phil Mickelson: 30/1

Hideki Matsuyama: 35/1

FIELD: 1/1

You could make a great case for any of Day, McIlroy, or Spieth. Day is the hottest (and number-one ranked) golfer in the world; McIlroy looks back in the form that vaulted him to world number-one a couple years ago; and Spieth, while struggling a bit to start 2016, won at Augusta last year and is coming off one of the best seasons in PGA history. 

The Masters’ smaller field (89 players versus 156 for the other three majors) betters everyone’s odds slightly.

 

Odds to win the Open Championship (Royal Troon Golf Club):

Rory McIlroy: 11/1

Jason Day: 21/2

Jordan Spieth: 12/1

Rickie Fowler: 15/1

Adam Scott: 18/1

Dustin Johnson: 25/1

Justin Rose: 25/1

Henrik Stenson: 30/1

Phil Mickelson: 35/1

Sergio Garcia: 35/1

Zach Johnson (defending champion): 100/1

FIELD: 1/1

There’s no reason to think the best won’t still be the best in July. Rory gets the bump for home-green advantage. Don’t bank on Zach Johnson repeating. 

 

Odds to win the US Open (Oakmont Country Club):

Jason Day: 10/1

Jordan Spieth (defending champion): 10/1

Rory McIlroy: 11/1

Adam Scott: 16/1

Rickie Fowler: 18/1

Justin Rose: 22/1

Henrik Stenson: 28/1

Phil Mickelson: 30/1

Brandt Snedeker: 35/1

Dustin Johnson: 40/1

FIELD: 9/10

The ultra-fast greens at Oakmont will favor the better putters (sorry, Dustin Johnson), so Spieth leaps McIlroy at the US Open and Brandt Snedeker gets a nod. But accuracy off the tee will be a requirement, as well: short rough puts the fairway bunkers in play. There’s also a need for some heavy hitting as the course features a 667-yard par 5 and a 288 yard par 3. I guess what I’m saying is that the winner will have to be really good at golf. 

 

Odds to win the PGA Championship (Baltusrol Golf Club – Lower Course):

Jason Day (defending champion): 27/2

Rory McIlroy: 14/1

Jordan Spieth: 14/1

Rickie Fowler: 18/1

Adam Scott: 22/1

Dustin Johnson: 30/1

Justin Rose: 30/1

Phil Mickelson: 32/1

Henrik Stenson: 35/1

FIELD: 5/6

Everyone’s odds go down a bit since it’s the farthest away and time has a habit of putting a wrench in the works, one way or another. Mickelson won the PGA at Baltusrol back in 2005, so he gets a bit of boost based on past performance.

 

Odds to win the grand slam (all four majors) in 2016:

Jordan Spieth: 5,000/1

Jason Day: 5,500/1

Rory McIlroy: 6,000/1

It’s never been done. It’s never going to be done, unless there’s some sort of Will Forte/Last Man on Earth-scenarioThere are just too many great golfers in the world. 

 

Odds to complete the career grand slam in 2016:

Rory McIlroy: 12/1

Phil Mickelson: 35/1

Jordan Spieth: 100/1

Rory just needs the Masters, while Lefty is only missing the US Open. Spieth needs the British and the PGA.

 

Odds to finish 2016 as the world no. 1:

Jason Day: 5/2

Jordan Spieth: 7/2

Rory McIlroy: 5/1

Bubba Watson: 9/1

Rickie Fowler: 10/1

Adam Scott: 23/2

Spieth and Day are neck and neck at the moment, but Spieth will have more points to defend as 2016 rolls on. 

 

Odds to finish 2016 as the top PGA money winner:

Jason Day: 8/1

Adam Scott: 9/1

Bubba Watson: 10/1

Jordan Spieth: 10/1

Rory McIlroy: 11/1

Rickie Fowler: 12/1

Dustin Johnson: 15/1

Scott is out to an early lead, but Day is playing the best golf and all the biggest purses are still up for grabs. No one’s a prohibitive favorite at this point, though. There’s too much season left and too much potential for injury and such. 

 

Odds Tiger Woods plays in a major in 2016: 7/5

With the Olympics this summer, the PGA Championship will be two weeks earlier than usual, giving Woods even less time to rebuild his body, Six Million Dollar Man-style.

 

Odds Tiger Woods makes the cut at a major in 2016: 18/1

Even if Tiger comes back, the Masters was by far his best chance to make a cut. Last year, he missed the mark at each of the other three majors.

 

Odds Tiger Woods wins another major in his career: 11/2

As long as Woods can recover, he’ll have plenty more chances to win a major. At just 40 years old, he figures to have at least six more years of decent golf in him. And old guys have proven recently they can still play. Why, in back-to-back years (2011, 2012), 42-year-olds Darren Clarke and Ernie Els won the Open Championship. Tiger’s window is far from closed.

 

Odds Tiger Woods makes a cut on the PGA Tour in 2016: 3/2

 

Odds Tiger Woods wins a PGA Tour event in 2016: 40/1

 

Odds Tiger Woods ever wins a PGA Tour event again: 11/10

 

Odds to win more career majors:

  • Rory McIlroy: 20/23
  • Jordan Spieth: 21/20

McIlroy has twice as many as Spieth, but Jordan is four years younger than Rory. Barring injury, the two should be going head-to-head for the next decade, trying to one-up each other.

(Photo credit: Zaneology (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode].)

AlexanderP

Alexander is the MTS editor-in-chief. Frank, Alex, and Geoff brought him in when they realized that their betting expertise far surpassed their grammatical abilities. He loves overanalyzing college basketball trends. Talking to him during the first weekend of March Madness is like talking to a wall. A very focused wall, but a wall nonetheless.