MLB Odds – Where Will the Next No-No Come From?

The MLB saw its first no-hitter of the summer last week when rookie Chris Heston introduced himself to the rest of the league, and incidentally the MLB record books.

While the no-no is a massive achievement for the 27-year-old, no-hitters have become a relatively common occurrence in the MLB. Since 2010, there have been 25, or about five per season.

So while we tip our hats to Heston, we’re also going to shove him aside for the time being and look into the future to forecast where the next no-hitter and perfect game will come from.

Odds to pitch the next no-hitter: 

  • Sonny Gray – 19/2
  • Shelby Miller – 10/1
  • Tim Lincecum – 11/1
  • Chris Archer – 11/1
  • Felix Hernandez – 23/2
  • Zack Greinke – 13/1
  • Clayton Kershaw – 15/1
  • Francisco Liriano – 19/1
  • Chris Sale – 21/1
  • Field – 9/4
  • None – 41/2

Gray already flirted with a no-hitter on Opening Day and holds a tie for the best WHIP in the league. Miller has allowed 52 hits on the year with two CGs already. Lincecum has two no-hitters in the past and, with a third, would join the elite company of: Cy Young, Larry Corcoran, Bob Feller, Sandy Koufax, and Nolan Ryan. Chris Archer is absolutely dealing this season, and the dominant arms of Hernandez, Kershaw, and Greinke are always a possibility. Liriano is a darkhorse, giving up only 50 hits over 12 starts.

Odds on which team gets no-hit next:

  • Milwaukee Brewers – 11/3
  • Philadelphia Phillies – 4/1
  • Seattle Mariners – 17/2
  • Houston Astros – 17/2
  • New York Mets – 9/1
  • Tampa Rays – 21/2
  • Field – 4/1

With every no hitter comes a slate of (at least) nine batters who had terrible days at the plate. Which nonet is going to be the next victim?Playing in the National League always increases the odds of being no-hit (apologies to Madison Bumgarner and others, but I’d still rather a backup catcher hitting over you). This means that the favorites to be victimized next are the cellar-dwelling Brewers and Phillies. Despite being tops of their respective divisions, the Astros and Mets batting orders have been brutal. It wouldn’t be shocking to see New York go down swinging again.

Odds to pitch a perfect game:

  • Max Scherzer – 37/4
  • Chris Archer – 29/3
  • Felix Hernandez – 10/1
  • Zack Greinke – 23/2
  • Sonny Gray – 37/3
  • Madison Bumgarner – 27/2
  • Jason Hammel – 15/1
  • Field – 6/1
  • None – 2/1

There have been seven perfect games since 2004, but the MLB hasn’t witnessed one since King Felix’s back in 2012. More than due for another one, these arms are all strong candidates to throw the next one. Scherzer and Hammel didn’t find themselves in our no-hitter props because they pound the strike zone, walking very few batters; so if they did flirt with a no-no, it would likely be a perfect one (as evidenced by Scherzer’s recent one-hit, one-walk, 16 strikeout, CG shutout).

(Photo Credit: SD Dirk on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as “Tim Lincecum”) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons)

Boris

Hockey may be a wildly unpopular sport in the U.S., but where no one is paying attention, there’s a ton of value for Boris to mine. An avid NHL fan of over 20 years, Malloy made his first bet against a friend during the 2001 Stanley Cup Finals (going against Ray Bourque) and has been hooked ever since. He has yet to pay off that debt of $2, but he’s made plenty back since. In between worrying about the league’s next lockout, he regularly contributes to MTS and is also fluent in football, basketball, baseball and French (sort of).