MLB Playoff Odds Update: Every NL Race Is Still Undecided

  • Entering the final weeks of the 2018 season, no playoff spot is safe in the National League. 
  • Many of the AL races are decided, but the Astros and A’s are still battling for the West title. 
  • Get the latest playoff and division-winner odds for all the teams that are still relevant. (Sorry, Washington.)

National League Playoff Odds

Team Record Playoff Odds Division Title Odds
Chicago Cubs 83-59 1/98 (-9800) 1/3 (-300)
Milwaukee Brewers 82-62 1/95 (-9500) 9/2 (+450)
Atlanta Braves 79-64 1/6 (-600) 1/5 (-500)
Los Angeles Dodgers 78-65 1/5 (-500) 1/1 (+100)
Colorado Rockies 78-64 5/6 (-120) 3/2 (+150)
St. Louis Cardinals 79-64 1/1 (+100) 49/1 (+4900)
Arizona Diamondbacks 76-67 11/2 (+550) 19/1 (+1900)
Philadelphia Phillies 74-68 11/2 (+550) 6/1 (+600)

The Cubs have the best record in the NL and all their three remaining games with the Brewers are at Wrigley, where they’re 44-24 on the year. The Brewers, meanwhile, are just 37-35 on the road. That’s why the Cubs are still prohibitive favorites to win the Central, despite holding a narrow two-game lead at the moment.

The Braves have distanced the Phillies in the East, but if they let that lead slip, they’re likely to be out of the playoffs entirely. They would be tied with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card if they weren’t leading the division, which is why Atlanta’s odds to win the East and make the playoffs are almost identical.

The NL West race is the most interesting of the bunch with the Rockies holding a slim 0.5-game lead over the Dodgers, with the D-Backs 2.5 behind. Why is LA the favorite to win the division? Colorado has a tougher schedule down the stretch, including three at Chavez Ravine, and the Dodgers have the best run differential in NL at +132.

American League Playoff Odds

Team Record Playoff Odds Division Title Odds
Boston Red Sox 98-46 OFF 1/99 (-9900)
Cleveland Indians 81-62 OFF 1/1000 (-10000)
Houston Astros 89-54 OFF 1/12 (-1200)
New York Yankees 89-54 1/150 (-15000) 99/1 (+9900)
Oakland Athletics 87-57 1/98 (-9800) 12/1 (+1200)
Tampa Bay Rays 78-64 120/1 (+12000) OFF
Seattle Mariners 79-64 120/1 (+12000) OFF

Every race in the American League is effectively over save two.

The Astros and A’s are separated by just 2.5 games in the West. Unfortunately for Oakland, they don’t have any more head to head matchups left with Houston, so making up the ground is going to be all the tougher. Oakland’s starting pitching is also regressing, as expected, though their bullpen continues to be among the best in baseball.

The other race that’s still open also features the A’s as they try to hunt down the Yankees for the first Wild Card spot. Getting home-field in the AL’s play-in game could prove crucial. Oakland is 46-29 at home versus 41-28 on the road, while New York is 48-24 at home and 41-30 on the road.

Oakland’s ERA balloons from 3.41 at home to 4.23 away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Alameda Coliseum. The Yankee batters see a precipitous decline in their power and ability to get on base on the road: .820 vs .731 OPS, .475 vs .421 SLG, .345 vs .310 OBP, 127 vs 105 HRs.

Obviously the ballparks play a big factor in that, but they don’t explain away the whole gap. Both of these teams are more comfortable at home and whoever claims the first Wild Card spot will be the favorite to emerge from the one-game playoff.

AlexanderP

Alexander is the MTS editor-in-chief. Frank, Alex, and Geoff brought him in when they realized that their betting expertise far surpassed their grammatical abilities. He loves overanalyzing college basketball trends. Talking to him during the first weekend of March Madness is like talking to a wall. A very focused wall, but a wall nonetheless.