2019 Formula 1 Odds: Is Lewis Hamilton’s Reign Almost Over?

  • Odds are available for the 2019 Formula 1 World Championship
  • Is anyone other than Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes worth a look?
  • Can Ferrari finally challenge for the title?

After a Formula 1 season in which Ferrari looked briefly competitive and Lewis Hamilton tricked us all into believing that he might not win, it’s not surprising to see Hamilton and Mercedes as odds-on favorites to win the Drivers’ and Constructors’ championships in 2019.

The odds below come to us from BetOnline.

2019 F1 Drivers’ World Championship Odds

Driver 2018 Points (Rank) 2019 Odds at BetOnline
Lewis Hamilton 408 (1st) -140
Sebastian Vettel 320 (2nd) +325
Max Verstappen 249 (3rd) +450
Charles Leclerc 39 (13th) +900
Valtteri Bottas 247 (5th) +1200

From there the odds sheet drops off. Pierre Gasly doesn’t have a real hope of winning the title, but the site will give you +3300 odds that he will.

I don’t think Hamilton has the mortal lock on the 2019 season that this odds sheet reflects. There’s a handful of rule changes coming for 2019, which should reshuffle the deck a little bit, and even in 2018 we saw flashes of parity. There were even points where– dare I say it– the Ferrari was the better car. Even Red Bull had some strong moments this year, and could put together an extremely competitive package in 2019.

That makes Vettel and Verstappen the value picks. Of the two, Vettel is the more proven, with four world championships and the most coveted job in motor racing.

2019 Constructors’ Championship Odds

Constructor 2018 Points (Rank) 2019 Odds at BetOnline
Mercedes 655 (1st) -180
Ferrari 571 (2nd) +250
Red Bull 419 (3rd) +450
Renault 122 (4th) +900
Force India 52 (7th)* +1200

As noted above, next season won’t be quite so dominated by Mercedes as the past few have been. Other constructors are finally catching up to the Silver Arrows on horsepower, and with that advantage neutralized Formula 1 might even become a fair fight.

The big question mark is the Honda power units Red Bull will be making use of in 2019. Big Red’s reputation for reliability and excellence hasn’t carried over into Formula 1, and the brand is probably best known for making Fernando Alonso sad and selling a championship-winning team to Ross Braun.

That makes Ferrari the value pick here. It’s certainly scary to take any team except Mercedes, but Ferrari has the odds, a competitive car, and perhaps the better driver lineup. Charles Leclerc could be more competitive and interesting than the consistent-if-forgettable Valtteri Bottas, and that could give Ferrari the edge.

Geoff Johnson

MTS co-founder Geoff Johnson is a lifelong Mets fan, something he can't do anything about. He has a great track record when it comes to wagering on baseball – largely because he's more than willing to bet against the Mets. His career profits are impressive, but not quite as good as his handsome friend Frank Lorenzo. He wishes he hadn't let Frank write his profile.