NCAAF Week 11 Sneak Peek – (3) Alabama at (16) LSU

A month ago, the classic SEC matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers didn’t look as appealing as in other years. The Tide had just lost to Ole Miss and the Tigers had lost their second of the year to Auburn. Since then, though, the teams have combined for six straight wins and, last week, LSU triumphed over previously unbeaten Ole Miss. Now Alabama is back up to No. 3 in the nation – the top one-loss team – and LSU has climbed to a respectable No. 16.

After both teams have byes next week, they will meet at Tiger Stadium on Saturday, November 6 (5:00 p.m. Eastern).

A month ago, the classic SEC matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers didn’t look as appealing as in other years. The Tide had just lost to Ole Miss and the Tigers had lost their second of the year to Auburn. Since then, though, the teams have combined for six straight wins and, last week, LSU triumphed over previously unbeaten Ole Miss. Now Alabama is back up to No. 3 in the nation – the top one-loss team – and LSU has climbed to a respectable No. 16.

After both teams have byes next week, they will meet at Tiger Stadium on Saturday, November 6 (5:00 p.m. Eastern).

Alabama’s only loss this season was a close 23-17 setback at Ole Miss in week five where the Tide gave up 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. The next week, Alabama looked sloppy against Arkansas, but hung on for a 14-13 win. The Tide got back on track thereafter, smashing Texas A&M at home (59-0) and taking care of Tennessee on the road (34-20).

After subpar performances against Ole Miss and Arkansas, the Crimson Tide offense is gaining momentum, averaging 46.5 points in the last two outings, ten points better than its season average.

After struggling against Ole Miss and, to some extent, Arkansas, Quarterback Blake Sims has put together two solid games in a row, going a combined 30 of 51 for 554 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions against A&M and Tennessee.

LSU has two very good wins on its resume this season: a 28-24 win over then-No. 14 Wisconsin in the opening week and a 10-7 victory over then-No.3 Ole Miss last weekend. But, with two losses under their belt, they are out of the running for a playoff spot (even though those losses were to current No. 1 Mississippi State and former No. 1 Auburn). The Tigers will be looking to spoil the party for their rivals the rest of the way.

LSU has a run-first offense that boasts both youth and experience. The Tigers lean heavily on Freshman Leonard Fournette (657 rush yards on 131 attempts) and Senior Terrence Magee (418 yards on 69 attempts). Against Ole Miss, LSU turned the ball over four times, but made up for the blunders with 264 rushing yards.

The real strength of the Tigers, though, is their defense, which gives up just 15.9 points per game (sixth best in the nation). Look for the Alabama game to be a low scoring affair, as Bama’s defense is even stouter than LSU’s, surrendering a meagre 14.0 PPG (third best in the country). Two weeks ago, the Crimson Tide were able to keep Kenny Hill and the potent Texas A&M offense off the board for the entire game. (Prior to that game, the Aggies hadn’t been held under 20 points all season.) When the betting line comes out, take a hard look at the under.

Alabama has won the last three meetings against LSU, including the 38-17 victory at Tiger stadium last season; they are 2-1 ATS in those three games.

(Photo credit: Latics (Own work) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html), CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped from its original.)

Frank Lorenzo

MTS co-founder Frank “Let It Ride” Lorenzo has been betting on sports since he was legally allowed to do so. (Did he do so before then, too? No comment.) He enjoys very strong coffee, neon lights, and passing on his wealth of betting knowledge to anyone who will listen.