NCAA Football Week 10 Picks Against the Spread

How is it Week 10 already? This isn’t fair. You can’t make me watch professional football, I won’t do it.

Last week was another 3-3 week. Sorry I didn’t make you any money. Here are some better picks.

ATS Record (2017): 32-25

Florida at Missouri (-3.5), Noon ET

This line flipped from opening, and I’m trying to figure out why. On one hand, Florida is garbage, has consistently looked garbage, and recently fired their “I did not have sexual relations with that shark” coach for not receiving enough death threats for being garbage. On the other hand: Missouri has three wins over Missouri State (8th in the Missouri Valley conference), Idaho (5th in the Sun Belt), and UConn (3rd in the America East).

Now I get firing your head coach is bad, but so is not firing Jim McElwain. Who is Randy Shannon? Miami fans remember. He can beat Missouri.

My pick: Florida (+3.5) to cover. This line is an overreaction to firing a bad coach.

Baylor (-8) at Kansas, Noon ET

Welcome one and all to the 2017 Incompetence Bowl. Baylor is 0-8, a historically bad start for the Bears. Kansas is 1-7, and has put up some historically ugly performances, including 21 yards of total offense against TCU. These teams are both so bad that this game could very well end 0-0, or swing either way, so the smart thing is to take the (pretty big) spread. The other smart approach is to not watch at all.

My pick: Kansas (+8) to cover.

Auburn (-15) at Texas A&M, Noon ET

This line is about dead-on for a neutral-site game. Auburn is really good, Texas A&M is roughly a replacement-level FBS team, and 15 points is a tasteful line. However, it’s not a neutral-site game; Kyle Field is just about the furthest you can get from a “neutral site.” When the line opened at 12.5 points in favor of Auburn, it was a tossup. Those extra 2.5 points are enough for me.

Also: remember the Alabama game against A&M? It was one of the few times ‘Bama hasn’t covered a big spread this year.

My pick: Texas A&M (+15) to cover.

Syracuse at Florida State (-5), 12:20pm ET

Why? Why is Florida State the favorite here? Is it because they got walloped by Boston College? Is it because Syracuse looked suspiciously good when they beat Clemson? Is it because the ‘Noles have looked absolutely hopeless since September 2nd, 2017? Is it a vague hope that even a dead cat will bounce when you drop it from high enough?

My Pick: Give me Syracuse and the points (+5), please. Give me the points and anybody against Florida State.

Ohio State (-17.5) at Iowa, 3:30pm ET

This isn’t really scientific,but I’m just very uncomfortable betting on Iowa to get blown out at home by a Big Ten team that should really blow out Iowa. I absolutely think Ohio State will win, but Iowa law dictates that all games played within the state’s borders must be won 13-8. They did it to Penn State earlier this year, and it feels like every big game I’ve seen at Kinnick Stadium has been an awkward wrestling tournament.

My Pick: Iowa (+17) to cover, in the most unwatchable way possible.

Photo: James Santelli (CC License)

Arizona at USC (-7.5), 1045pm ET

Have you seen Arizona play football recently? Go watch the Washington State game, or better yet, just read the box score. It’s easy to give up 653 yards to Washington State in a blowout, but how do you do it and win? How do you gain 585 yards with 13 first downs? How do you have two players with 75-plus-yard rushes? It’s like a ground-based air raid, and I don’t understand it. I certainly won’t bet against it.

Have you seen USC play recently? Doesn’t look so hot, does it?

My pick: I would pretty comfortably take Arizona (+7.5) straight up here. Something weird is happening with this Khalil Tate fellow.

Geoff Johnson

MTS co-founder Geoff Johnson is a lifelong Mets fan, something he can’t do anything about. He has a great track record when it comes to wagering on baseball – largely because he’s more than willing to bet against the Mets. His career profits are impressive, but not quite as good as his handsome friend Frank Lorenzo. He wishes he hadn’t let Frank write his profile.