NFL Coach of the Year Odds: Belichick and Arians the Co-Favorites

  • Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians are co-favorites (+1200) to win Coach of the Year
  • Mike McCarthy (+1400) and Kevin Stefanski (+1800) are the best bets among the latest round of coaching hires
  • Mike Tomlin (+2800) has never finished a season under .500 in his 13-year coaching career

The 2020 battle for NFL Coach of the Year comes with a juicy pre-baked storyline as Tom Brady’s new boss in Tampa Bay, Bruce Arians (+1200), is co-favored to win the award with Brady’s old partner-in-crime, Bill Belichick.

But while the man in the Kangol hat enters the season with outsized expectations, no one seems to be giving New England’s legendary coach a chance with Jarrett Stidham behind center.

That means Arians will need to win at least 12 games to claim his third-career COY honor while Belichick will almost be a lock for his fourth award (and first in a full decade) if he can coax ten victories out of a Patriots offense that looks downright bereft of skill-position talent.

Let’s take a look at all the contenders on the board and draw up a winning play.

2020 COACH OF THE YEAR ODDS

Coach (Team) Odds
Bill Belichick (Patriots) +1200
Bruce Arians (Buccaneers) +1200
Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) +1400
Frank Reich (Colts) +1600
Andy Reid (Chiefs) +1800
Kevin Stefanski (Browns) +1800
Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals) +1800
Sean McDermott (Bills) +1800
Kyle Shanahan (49ers) +2000
Mike Vrabel (Titans) +2200
Brian Flores (Dolphins) +2500
Doug Pederson (Eagles) +2500
John Harbaugh (Ravens) +2500
Vic Fangio (Broncos) +2500
Mike Tomlin (Steelers) +2800
Mike Zimmer (Vikings) +2800
Pete Carroll (Seahawks) +2800
Anthony Lynn (Chargers) +3000
Dan Quinn (Falcons) +3000
Matt Lafleur (Packers) +3000
Matt Nagy (Bears) +3000
Sean McVay (Rams) +3000
Sean Payton (Saints) +3000
Matt Patricia (Lions) +3300
Matt Rhule (Panthers) +3300
Zak Taylor (Bengals) +3300
Joe Judge (Giants) +4000
Jon Gruden (Raiders) +4000
Ron Rivera (Redskins) +4000
Adam Gase (Jets) +5000
Bill O’Brien (Texans) +5000
Doug Marrone (Jaguars) +5000

FIRST-YEAR HEAD COACHES

After leaving Green Bay as a laughing stock just over a year ago, Mike McCarthy (+1400) now has the enviable position of following Jason Garrett, another one of the national media’s favorite punching bags, as Cowboys head coach.

Four of the last ten COY awards have gone to head coaches in their first year with their respective franchises and McCarthy inherits a Dallas team that somehow went 8-8 in 2019 despite having the point differential of a double-digit win club. With a loaded offense and the NFL’s third-easiest schedule, the only thing that could stop the Beav now is his undying love for kicking field goals.

With disappointment from last year’s disaster 6-10 season still lingering around Lake Erie, Kevin Stefanski (+1800) and his perfectly-manicured salt-and-pepper beard will be hailed as a franchise savior if he can win ten games with Baker Mayfield and a beefed up offensive line.

The only problem is that eight of the past ten COYs have gone to coaches who win their division, and well… the Ravens are in the AFC North. That stat also doesn’t bode well for palatial homeowner Kliff Kingsbury (+1800) given the Cardinals share a division with the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks.

COACHES WHO CAN WIN THEIR DIVISION

That last stat might also explain why Mike Tomlin (+2800) is way down the board following a season where he miraculously coached the Mason Rudolph- and “Duck” Hodges-led Steelers to eight victories. However, if Big Ben comes back strong and Pittsburgh makes the playoffs, there will be a lot of momentum behind Tomlin, who has never finished a season under .500 in his 13-year coaching career.

While everyone expects Andy Reid (+1800) and Kyle Shanahan (+2000) to win their respective divisions, the “rebounding from a Super Bowl loss” narrative gives the 49ers’ offensive mastermind a chance to capture the award if San Francisco can muster a strong follow up to last year’s 13-win season.

A steady drumbeat of offseason buzz is building behind the Bills and the Colts, who are both +125 favorites to win their respective divisions. If you believe Philip Rivers has gas left in the tank, Frank Reich (+1600) is an excellent wager. And if you somehow still have faith in Josh Allen after last year’s epic playoff meltdown, I won’t talk you out of Sean McDermott at +1800.

Bill O’Brien (+5000) has never been named Coach of the Year despite winning the AFC South in four of the the past five seasons, but if Houston claims the division yet again, would coach BOB be worthy of the award after general manager BOB’s series of trade blunders stripped the Texans of all their talent? Was this his master plan all along?!!

Best bet: Kevin Stefanski (+1800)

Value bet: Mike Tomlin (+2800)

Steve Dominey

Steve has almost 15 years of experience in marketing, PR and sports television. After acquiring a Journalism degree from Carleton University, he assembled highlight packs for Canada's most-watched sports network (TSN) before transitioning to a career in communications. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.