Analyzing Numbers Can Gain You an Advantage

Betting every NFL game each week is a losing formula. Sportsbooks are going to be right more often than they are wrong. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t significant opportunities each Sunday to make a profit. Being able to decipher where an advantage may exist can be as simple as analyzing numbers. There is a number out there this week that certainly seems to signal dollar signs.

Betting every NFL game each week is a losing formula. Sportsbooks are going to be right more often than they are wrong. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t significant opportunities each Sunday to make a profit. Being able to decipher where an advantage may exist can be as simple as analyzing numbers. There is a number out there this week that certainly seems to signal dollar signs.

It is true that betting on the Chiefs or Saints last season was marginally successful. Kansas City went 9-7 against the spread while New Orleans was 8-7-1. What made bettors a lot more happy was picking their spots with each team. The Chiefs were 2-6 against the number at home and 7-1 on the road. The Saints finished 7-0-1 against the spread at home and 1-7 outside of Louisiana. In other words, a small fortune was available by betting on KC away from home and against them in Missouri and vice versa for the Saints. Five weeks into this season, trends are starting to develop.

Four teams have numbers that indicate a significant bias thus far in the NFL. Two of them play each other in week five. The Bears covered only four games last year with three of them on the road. Chicago is 0-2 against the spread at home this year, but 2-1 away from the Windy City. The Bears travel to Atlanta this week where the Falcons are 2-0 against the number. Atlanta has yet to cover in three tries on the road. This is a game to pass on now, and remember the trend going forward.

The Cowboys are 4-1 overall and 3-2 against the spread. They are 2-0 against the number on the road and 1-2 at home. Dallas is in Seattle this week. The Seahawks are 2-0 against the spread at home this season after going 5-3 last year and 7-1 in 2012. Betting against Seattle at home is not a profitable strategy, but don’t forget down the line how the Cowboys have generally done away from Texas.

While the Raiders have been bad recently, betting against them has produced only mixed results. They are 10-10 against the number dating back to the start of last season. This year Oakland is 0-2 against the spread at home and 2-0 on the road. The Raiders are 3-7 against the number at home over the last two years and 5-13 during the past three seasons. This week Oakland hosts San Diego. The Chargers are 5-0 against the spread this year, overall, and 2-0 on the road. The Chargers were 4-3-1 against the number away from home last year. San Diego’s last four road games are wins over Kansas City, Denver, a one point loss at Arizona, and a convincing win at Buffalo. The Raiders have a new coach this Sunday and are 1-10 following a bye week since 2003. Bet the Chargers with confidence; the numbers are on your side.