Betting Tips: Take Advantage of Early NFL Trends

With the NFL season now here an opportunity to take advantage of changes in the league is upon us. Using the same analysis you had at the end of last season is a way to lose a lot of money. Understanding how teams are different in 2014 will allow you to capitalize on faulty early season lines. Here are three things to keep an eye on.

With the NFL season now here an opportunity to take advantage of changes in the league is upon us. Using the same analysis you had at the end of last season is a way to lose a lot of money. Understanding how teams are different in 2014 will allow you to capitalize on faulty early season lines. Here are three things to keep an eye on.

 

The NFL is a Copycat League

Everybody knew that the Eagles would be vastly different last season when they hired University of Oregon head coach Chip Kelly to run their franchise. Kelly instituted the fastest tempo in league history and early in the year betting an over on Philly games was like owning your own ATM machine. Despite not winning a lot in the opening month of the season, Philadelphia and their opponents combined to score 60, 63, 42, 72, 57 and 51 points during their first six games. Sportsbooks have adjusted, but remember the Eagles frequently give up as many points as they score.

The JV version of the Eagles last season was the Bears. Traditionally known as a tough, defensive minded team, under Marc Trestman Chicago scored almost 28 points a game and gave up nearly 30 a contest. The public was slower to recognize what was happening in the Windy City than Philadelphia, and Chicago put together 12 overs and only four unders last year.

Who will be the Eagles and Bears of this season? Miami wide receiver Mike Wallace hinted that the Dolphins used a very small percentage of their playbook during the preseason, and new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor was on the Eagles staff last year. San Francisco has taken a major hit with injuries and suspensions on defense, and now their offense is deeper than it ever has been under Jim Harbaugh. Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree are healthy at the start of this season, Brandon Lloyd and Stevie Johnson were added as targets in the passing game, and young backs Carlos Hyde and LaMichael James are ready to shoulder some of Frank Gore’s load in the backfield. It’s also time to take the training wheels off of Colin Kaepernick.

 

New Coaches Can Have a Big Impact

Andy Reid showed up in Kansas City last year and aided by an easy schedule and new quarterback led the Chiefs from 2-14 to 11-5. Arizona and San Diego also made major leaps with new bosses in town. Where does that leave us for this year?

The Texans were a train wreck last season and Gary Kubiak took enough of the blame to get fired. Enter Bill O’Brien. He was a key member of the Patriots staff during good times and then did an excellent job at Penn State. Houston has many of the same players that went 12-4 two years ago. Whether it be Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett or Tom Savage, O’Brien is experienced working with young signal callers.

Mike Munchak went a respectable 22-26 in three years with the Titans. Ken Whisenhunt replaces him in Tennessee after resurrecting Phillip Rivers in San Diego last season. As the head coach in Arizona Whisenhunt went 45-51 and got fired after being stuck with John Skelton, Kevin Kolb and Ryan Lindley at QB in his final season. His career playoff record is 4-2. Jake Locker should benefit from Whisenhunt just like Rivers, Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger did during his various stops in the league.

 

How Will Games Be Officiated

At the start of college basketball season, when the definition of a foul changed, every game went over for the first week. During the preseason this year NFL officials emphasized defensive holding and illegal contact. That led to more penalties, the clock stopping frequently, and extra chances for the offense to score. If those changes continue into the regular season games will go over frequently early, but sportsbooks will catch up quickly. Take advantage while you can.