Let QB’s Guide You to Profits

Analyzing a football game and failing to look beyond star players is a mistake. In fantasy sports the only thing that matters is touchdowns scored and yards accumulated. However, when you place a wager, you need the defense and linemen to play well in order for your team to cover the spread. That being said, quarterbacks matter. The question is, how much do signal callers impact the game?

luckAnalyzing a football game and failing to look beyond star players is a mistake. In fantasy sports the only thing that matters is touchdowns scored and yards accumulated. However, when you place a wager, you need the defense and linemen to play well in order for your team to cover the spread. That being said, quarterbacks matter. The question is, how much do signal callers impact the game?

It is easy to look at basic stats and come to the conclusion that Peyton Manning is really good and EJ Manuel is not. At footballoutsiders.com they use a complex formula taking into account advanced metrics to calculate how effective each QB in the league has been. Betting on top passers this year has been incredibly lucrative.

The top ranked quarterback this season is Andrew Luck of the Colts. Indianapolis is 2-2 overall, but they are 3-1 against the spread. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan has been the second best quarterback so far in 2014. The Falcons are 2-2 straight up and against the number. Phillip Rivers comes in third best so far this year and the Chargers are 3-1 overall and a perfect 4-0 against the spread. Betting on the top three QB’s this year is an incredible 9-3 against the number.

On the flip side, betting against the worst quarterbacks is also profitable. Chad Henne is at the bottom of the rankings and Blake Bortles who replaced him in the Jags lineup is rated number 27 out of 36 field generals to play this season. Jacksonville is 0-4 on the year and winless against the spread. The second worst quarterback thus far is the also disposed Josh McCown. The Bucs went 0-3 straight up and against the spread with McCown as the starter. Mike Glennon replaced McCown. Glennon was right in the middle of the pack among quarterbacks last year, and in his one start this season led Tampa Bay to a victory. The third worst quarterback this season, the Jets Geno Smith, has led New York to a 1-3 record including 0-3-1 against the spread. Of course, one could have guessed who some of the better and worse quarterbacks would be this year without advanced stats. But would you have known the Patriots were doomed to fail?

While it might not have saved you money in week one, when Brady, last year’s sixth rated quarterback, faced Ryan Tannehill, a middle of the road guy, had you been paying close attention to the numbers, Monday night would have been a field day. Brady is the fourth worst quarterback in the league this year. His opponent on Monday, Kansas City’s Alex Smith ranks just outside the top 10. That’s no fluke either. Smith has consistently finished above average in quarterback play over the last handful of seasons. If you could have substantiated how bad Brady has been this year, recognized Smith being consistently solid, and knew the game was in Kansas City, the Chiefs very easily could have been a cash cow for you early in 2014. The Pats are 1-3 against the number this year while the Chiefs are 3-1 in large part due to having a bad quarterback instead of a solid one.