NFL 1/4 Mark Odds: Everything We’ve Learned So Far

The Buffalo Bills lead the AFC East. The Los Angeles Rams are atop the NFC West. And the New York Jets have as many wins as the New England Patriots. The 2017 NFL season has been an interesting one, to say the least.

But before we start crowning the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl champions, let’s remember there is still a lot of football to be played, and a whole lot that can happen over the next 13 weeks. Here’s what we have learned from the first four weeks of action.

Below you’ll find Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams, along with odds to win each conference and division, updated player-awards odds, a list of QBs who will/should be mulling retirement after this season, and (of course) Ezekiel Elliott and player discipline odds. If you can make it through all that and are still hungry for more, there’s even a quick section on Mitchell Trubisky, who will fittingly be making his first NFL start in breast cancer awareness month.

Team and Player-Award Odds

ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL LII

New England Patriots: 22/3
Green Bay Packers: 15/2
Kansas City Chiefs: 8/1
Atlanta Falcons: 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers: 14/1
Seattle Seahawks: 14/1
Dallas Cowboys: 18/1
Denver Broncos: 24/1
Philadelphia Eagles: 28/1
Oakland Raiders: 30/1
Carolina Panthers: 33/1
Detroit Lions: 40/1
Houston Texans: 40/1
Los Angeles Rams: 40/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 45/1
Buffalo Bills: 50/1
Tennessee Titans: 60/1
Minnesota Vikings: 60/1
Washington: 66/1
New Orleans Saints: 75/1
Arizona Cardinals: 99/1
Baltimore Ravens: 125/1
Jacksonville Jaguars: 125/1
Cincinnati Bengals: 150/1
New York Giants: 150/1
Indianapolis Colts: 200/1
Los Angeles Chargers: 200/1
Miami Dolphins: 200/1
New York Jets: 225/1
Chicago Bears: 250/1
San Francisco 49ers: 300/1
Cleveland Browns: 350/1

Though the Chiefs remain the NFL’s only unbeaten team, the Patriots’ history and experience in January keep them at the top of our Super Bowl LII futures. New England clearly has some issues on defense — sitting 31st in points allowed and 32nd in total defense — but Bill Belichick is too good of a coach to let them continue at this pace. Don’t expect the Pats’ defense to ever be dominant this season, but they will be good enough to allow Tom Brady to win them games.

The Packers possess the best odds of any NFC team, largely due to one man: Aaron Rodgers. The two-time MVP has the Packer offense rolling, and has done so without his starting tackles for the majority of the season. Both David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga will return to the lineup shortly, making Rodgers and the Green Bay even more potent than it’s already been. Add in a defense that has dramatically improved against the pass thanks to Kevin King and Davon House, and it’s going to be awfully difficult to stop Rodgers from reaching his second Super Bowl.

ODDS TO WIN THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

New England Patriots: 19/6
Kansas City Chiefs: 13/4
Pittsburgh Steelers: 6/1
Denver Broncos: 10/1
Oakland Raiders: 12/1
Houston Texans: 18/1
Buffalo Bills: 24/1
Tennessee Titans: 29/1
Baltimore Ravens: 66/1
Jacksonville Jaguars: 66/1
Cincinnati Bengals: 75/1
Indianapolis Colts: 100/1
Los Angeles Chargers: 100/1
Miami Dolphins: 100/1
New York Jets: 110/1
Cleveland Browns: 175/1

It’s hard to argue any team is playing better football than the Kansas City Chiefs right now. But the team playing the best football four weeks into the season isn’t always the one that wins the Super Bowl (see: the 2016 Vikings). For the Chiefs to make their first Super Bowl appearance since 1969, Alex Smith will need to continue playing way above his career averages; the veteran pivot currently has a 124.2 passer rating in 2017, compared to an 86.4 career mark. The Chiefs will also need Kareem Hunt to stay healthy while touching the ball over 20 times per game. And Andy Reid will need to continue being creative with his offense to mask the fact that KC lacks a true no. 1 wide receiver.

ODDS TO WIN THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Green Bay Packers: 7/2
Atlanta Falcons: 19/4
Seattle Seahawks: 13/2
Dallas Cowboys: 9/1
Philadelphia Eagles: 15/1
Carolina Panthers: 18/1
Detroit Lions: 22/1
Los Angeles Rams: 22/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24/1
Minnesota Vikings: 33/1
Washington: 39/1
New Orleans Saints: 40/1
Arizona Cardinals: 50/1
New York Giants: 75/1
Chicago Bears: 125/1
San Francisco 49ers: 150/1

Homefield advantage is going to play a vital role in determining who represents the NFC in Super Bowl LII. If the Falcons are forced to play outdoors in the playoffs, their odds of returning to the big game would take a massive hit. The same goes for Seattle if they have to play anywhere other than C-Link. The Packers and Cowboys’ odds are less location-dependent. Dallas’ ground game has the ability to suck the life out of a crowd and doesn’t waver with the weather. The Packers … have Aaron Rodgers. (We’ve been over this already. Try to keep up.)

ODDS TO WIN THE AFC EAST

New England Patriots: 1/4
Buffalo Bills: 6/1
Miami Dolphins: 32/1
New York Jets: 36/1

As long as Bill Belichick isn’t forced to start taking snaps, the Patriots will win the AFC East. But even then, Belichick could probably piece together a scheme that hides him well enough.

ODDS TO WIN THE AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers: 1/2
Baltimore Ravens: 7/2
Cincinnati Bengals: 9/1
Cleveland Browns: 99/1

The Steelers haven’t played great football yet — especially Ben Roethlisberger — but they’re already a game up on Baltimore with a head-to-head win in the bank while Cincy and Cleveland have one win between them, which only came when they played each other.

ODDS TO WIN THE AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans: 2/1
Tennessee Titans: 11/4
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7/2
Indianapolis Colts: 9/2

Despite a solid last two weeks, expect the Houston Texans’ offense to be inconsistent with rookie QB Deshaun Watson leading the way. But inconsistent should be good enough. Neither the Titans nor Jaguars instill much confidence, especially with Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota becoming an injury-report mainstay. The Texans at least have a defense they can rely on and, more importantly, someone other than Blake Bortles under center. Watch out for the Colts if they can stay within striking distance until Andrew Luck actually makes it back into the lineup.

ODDS TO WIN THE AFC WEST

Kansas City Chiefs: 13/7
Denver Broncos: 7/3
Oakland Raiders: 3/1
Los Angeles Chargers: 9/1

The Broncos took a lead pipe to Oakland’s playoff hopes in Week 4, handing the Raiders both a loss and the costliest of injuries to QB Derek Carr. Sure, EJ Manuel looked decent in relief (11/17 for 106 yards and one INT) but he will not play the Raiders into the playoffs. If Carr is forced to miss six weeks, Oakland will find itself with too much catching-up to do when he returns.

And if there’s one place no one in the AFC wants to play in the playoffs, it’s Denver. Tough as Arrowhead can be, in its own right, Kansas City has a lot of fans in the conference right now.

ODDS TO WIN THE NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys: 7/3
Philadelphia Eagles: 5/2
Washington: 3/1
New York Giants: 26/5

It’s becoming increasingly likely that the NFC East title will not be decided until Week 17, when the Cowboys make a trip to Philadelphia to close out the regular season. The Eagles boast one of the best defensive fronts in the league, and their offensive line is criminally underrated. Jason Kelce is proving to be one of the best centers in the league, and there’s no safer duo at tackle than Jason Peters and Lane Johnson. If Ezekiel Elliott is forced to serve his suspension this season (odds found below), look for the Eagles to take advantage.

ODDS TO WIN THE NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers: 1/1
Detroit Lions: 3/1
Minnesota Vikings: 4/1
Chicago Bears: 19/1

If Walt Coleman’s crew (and the NFL) hadn’t butchered the last play of the Lions-Falcons game, Detroit would be 4-0 with wins over the Cardinals, Giants, Falcons, and Vikings. If anyone in the NFC North can slay the mighty Aaron Rodgers, it’s Matthew Stafford and the Lions.

ODDS TO WIN THE NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons: 3/2
Carolina Panthers: 3/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4/1
New Orleans Saints: 17/3

If Week 4 Cam Newton (22/29 for 316 yards, three TDs and one INT; 130.8 passer rating) hangs around for the rest of the season, the Panthers may just walk through the NFC South. But if Cam Newton from Weeks 1-3 resurfaces, the Panthers may just walk right into a brick wall.

ODDS TO WIN THE NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks: 3/2
Los Angeles Rams: 5/3
Arizona Cardinals: 4/1
San Francisco 49ers: 40/1

The Seahawks proved last week they can still bully the NFL’s weakest (non-divisional) opponents at Centurylink Field. But Seattle will have to solve its offensive line issues quickly before Russell Wilson gets hurt.

ODDS TO WIN AP NFL MVP

Tom Brady, Patriots: 4/1
Aaron Rodgers, Packers: 9/2
Matt Ryan, Falcons: 7/1
Kareem Hunt, Chiefs: 15/2
Russell Wilson, Seahawks: 9/1
Matthew Stafford, Lions: 12/1
Alex Smith, Chiefs: 14/1
FIELD: 13/2

Tom Brady is currently on pace to throw for a single-season record 5,596 yards, with 40 TDs and zero INTs. Simply put, his play has been nearly flawless. The Pats defense may help their QB win his third MVP award by never allowing him to take his foot off the gas.

In order for a running back to win NFL MVP honors, they have to do something truly special, like rush for 2,000 yards or break the single-season rushing touchdown record. Kareem Hunt is currently on pace to rush for 2,008 yards and amass 2,636 yards from scrimmage (a single-season record). I’d call that pretty special.

ODDS TO WIN AP OROY

Texans rookie QB Deshaun Watson at the 2016 NFL Draft (Photo: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Kareem Hunt, Chiefs: 3/2
Deshaun Watson, Texans: 4/1
Leonard Fournette, Jaguars: 9/1
Mitchell Trubisky, Bears: 9/1
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers: 14/1
Tarik Cohen, Bears: 16/1
Joe Mixon, Bengals: 19/1
FIELD: 39/1

Barring injuries, the only player with a chance of stealing the OROY award from Kareem Hunt is Deshaun Watson. But even he’ll need a few more four-touchdown performances to start narrowing the gap.

QB Retirement Odds

ODDS TO RETIRE AFTER THE 2017 SEASON

Jay Cutler, Dolphins: 2/3
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: 1/1
Eli Manning, Giants: 3/2
Carson Palmer, Cardinals: 2/1
Philip Rivers, Chargers: 9/1

Being virtually shutout in back-to-back weeks by the Jets and Saints suggests that Jay Cutler should have stayed retired. If he can’t get Miami’s offense going, he may get some time to practice his broadcasting skills on the sideline.

Ben Roethlisberger shocked the football world when he revealed he was considering retirement last offseason. Looking at his numbers and play on the field since the start of 2016, he may have been onto something. It’s clear Big Ben’s body doesn’t have much left.

Player Discipline Props

Odds on the next (active) player arrested

Adam Jones, Bengals: 49/1
Aqib Talib, Broncos: 59/1
Kenny Britt, Browns: 59/1
Joe Mixon, Bengals: 69/1

At any given time, there are 1,696 active players in the league (53 players x 32 rosters). Human nature being what it is, any one of them could find themselves in cuffs. Heck, I might fly off the handle when someone snakes my Uber on the way home. But recidivism is a real thing; Adam Jones and his umpteen arrests prove it.

Odds on the next player suspended for on-field actions

File:Vontaze Burfict 2014 Bengals training camp.jpg
Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict (Photo: Navin Rajagopalan (Flickr) CC License)

Vontaze Burfict, Bengals: 25/1
Nick Fairley, Saints: 45/1
Ndamukong Suh, Dolphins: 45/1
TJ Ward, Buccaneers: 50/1
Odell Beckham Jr, NY Giants: 55/1
Richard Sherman, Seahawks: 55/1
Terrell Suggs, Ravens: 55/1

With nearly 1,700 players in the league, 25/1 might seem insanely short for a single person. But “the Burfict Storm” has earned it. He just finished serving a three-game suspension for an illegal hit in the preseason, marking the second time in as many years he was suspended before the regular season began. He racked up countless fines for his dirty play before the league turned to the suspension option.

Ndamukong Suh has mostly cleaned up his act in Miami, but we still know the ankle-twisting and head-stomping he’s capable of.

Odds on the next coach suspended

Sean Payton, Saints: 20/1
Bill Belichick, Patriots: 22/1
Doug Marrone, Jaguars: 25/1
Mike Zimmer, Vikings: 25/1
Bill O’Brien, Texans: 28/1

This list is headed by the guys with a spotty track record (Payton and Belichick), followed by the guys who would make me nervous in an elevator (Marrone and Zimmer), and rounded out by one who makes decisions so questionable it has to make you wonder about his mental health (O’Brien; the man actually thought Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, and Ryan Mallett could be viable starting quarterbacks in the NFL).

Ezekiel Elliott Props

Image result for ezekiel elliott
Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott (Photo: Keith Allison (flickr) CC License)

Over/Under start-date of suspension: Week 5.5

The NFL is challenging the injunction that’s allowing Elliott to play while his suspension appeal is ongoing. The decision on that challenge may not be out in time to affect Elliott’s Week 5 status, but it should be rendered in time for Week 6. I’d personally take the over on this. The NFL’s case against the injunction (not to be confused with its original case against Elliott) isn’t overly strong. In general, courts favor letting the status quo remain intact; if Elliott serves a suspension that’s subsequently overturned, you can’t give him those missed games back. If the suspension is upheld, he can always serve it down the road (like Tom Brady with DeflateGate).

Over/Under length of Elliott’s final suspension: 5.5 games

NFL policy mandates a minimum six-game suspension for domestic-abuse cases. While it hasn’t always abided by its own policy, there isn’t supposed to be discretion involved, and Elliott’s case against the suspension, itself, is pretty weak. Odds are that he serves the full six games at some point in time. But when …?

Odds Elliott’s suspension …

starts in the 2017 season: 1/2
starts in the 2018 season: 9/5
is never served: 21/1

Odds to lose their job first

Demaurice Smith (NFLPA Executive Director): 1/7
Roger Goodell (NFL Commissioner; self-perceived omnipotent demigod): 7/1

“De” Smith is allegedly trying to turn himself into an untouchable totalitarian strongman at the head of the NFLPA. That’s rubbed some players the wrong way. Go figure.

Goodell has rubbed a few owners the wrong way in his time, to be sure, but he’s also massaged them gently and passionately with giant stacks of money. Most of these incredibly rich people seem to enjoy that. Go figure.

Mitchell Trubisky Props

Over/Under number of starts for Trubisky in 2017: 11.5

Injury would be the only reason Chicago would turn back to Mike Glennon, or any other QB on the roster. This is Trubisky’s job for the rest of the year, regardless of how he plays.

Over/Under wins for Trubisky in 2017: 2.5

The Bears get the 49ers and Browns at home later this season, and have trips to Baltimore and Cincinnati on the schedule as well. The UNC product should be able to pick up a couple wins while leaning on Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen on the ground.

Odds the Bears beat the Vikings in Week 5: 4/3

The Vikings will be without rookie-sensation Dalvin Cook, and likely still missing Sam Bradford. Latavius Murray and Case Keenum will be in tough against a Bears D playing at home. Chicago has been much better at Soldier Field than away from it this year; they should have beaten Atlanta in Week 1 and then stunned Pittsburgh in overtime in Week 3.

Over/Under interceptions by Trubisky in Week 5: 0.5

The Vikings have failed to generate a turnover in three of their four games, and I foresee John Fox and the Bears holding Trubisky back a little in his first start.

Over/Under fumbles by Trubisky in Week 5: 0.5

Over/Under times Trubisky is sacked in Week 5: 2.5

In the preseason, Trubisky was decisive with the ball and showed off his quick release. However, the rookie doesn’t have any pass-catchers who are capable of consistently getting open. Everson Griffen (five sacks in 2017) is going to be screaming off that edge.

Odds Bears fans boo Trubisky in …

2017: 3/2
2018: 2/3
Ever: 1/99

Keep in mind, Bears fans just had to sit through Mike Glennon for four weeks. Trubisky’s struggles will be welcomed in the Windy City, because at least it’s him making the errors. Even if the second-overall pick does turn out to be the franchise’s savior, everyone gets boo’d at some point in their career.

Odds Trubisky wins 2017 NFL MVP: 199/1

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Perry

Perry is a regular contributor to MTS and a die-hard Broncos fan. Yes, he does remember the five Super Bowl losses, but likely remembers all your teams shortcomings, too. Consider yourself warned. Though his love for the Broncos may seem unconditional, Mr. Port never mixes his emotions with gambling.