NFL Sneak Peek – Week 6 – Bears vs. Falcons

For the fourth time in five weeks, the Bears are on the road as they take on their second straight NFC South opponent. Chicago has played well away from home and have won four of their last six meetings with Atlanta dating back to the turn of the century. Atlanta is 2-0 at home after beating New Orleans on opening day and crushing Tampa Bay in week three. The Falcons have been .500 or better against the spread at home every season since 2007.

For a fourth time in five weeks the Bears are on the road as they take on their second straight NFC South division opponent. Chicago has played well away from home and have won four of their last six meetings with Atlanta dating back to the turn of the century. Atlanta is 2-0 at home after beating New Orleans on opening day and crushing Tampa Bay in week three. The Falcons have been .500 or better against the spread at home every season since 2007.

Chicago was one of the most predictable teams in the NFL last year. They scored a lot of points, gave up even more, and were awesome to bet against. The Bears went 4-10-2 against the spread in 2013. They predictably were a big “over” team too, eclipsing the total on 12 occasions. Sure sportsbooks catch on to trends, but early this year the Bears have been able to score, and have run into some ugly offensive performances by their opponents particularly when it comes to turnovers and second half performances. Those things tend to balance out. Betting against the Bears and on overs in their games is not the worst idea.

Who are the Falcons, exactly? They won 13 games in 2012, but just four in 2013. Did they falter in 2012 due to injuries or did they hit their pinnacle and then regress? Perhaps they aren’t as good as 2012 suggested, nor as bad as last year would have us believe? Looking at Atlanta’s performance at home to start to the 2014 season can help answer some of the lingering questions. They began the year by edging out New Orleans 37-34 in overtime. The Saints struggle on defense and on the road, but are supposed to be a strong team. Atlanta’s week one win was reminiscent of the 2012 Falcons.  The Falcons then dominated Tampa Bay 56-14 with the Bucs looking every bit as bad as last year’s 4-12 record would suggest. However, Atlanta has also posted three road losses to begin the 2014 campaign, looking more like the lousy 2013 Falcons than their 2012 counterpart. Even in a really bad season last year, though, Atlanta was a respectable 7-9 against the spread; and, in 2012, they went 9-6-1 against the number. If nothing else, heading into week six we know that Atlanta can pass (especially at home) and the Bears aren’t exactly the Seahawks on defense.