Clinton County Jailbreak Odds

More than ten days after they escaped from a maximum-security facility in upstate New York, convicted murderers Richard Matt and David Sweat remain on the run.

After tireless searches using 800 officers, motion detectors placed in the woods, and helicopters armed with infrared cameras, police have officially announced that the trail has run cold in the hunt for the cold-blooded killers. This is despite the more than 870 leads that have come from as far away as Mexico.

The hope now is that Joyce Mitchell, the prison employee who allegedly helped the two escape, can provide some hint as to the fugitives’ whereabouts. Mitchell, who worked at the jail as a tailor, now sits in a jail cell, herself, accused of sneaking tools (chisels, hacksaw blades, and drill bits) to the fugitives.

With Matt and Sweat on the run, public safety remains the biggest concern; officials are warning that the men are extremely dangerous. For years, Hollywood has entertained audiences with Shawshank-esque escapes, but this story seems bound to end in tragedy. Without making light of a situation that could turn for the worse at any moment, we’ve set some odds on when and how these pariahs of society will be tracked down by Clinton County’s finest!

Odds on if Matt and Sweat will be caught: 1/10 (They can run, but they can’t hide … at least not forever.)

Odds on when Matt and Sweat will be caught:

  • within one month of their escape: 1/2
  • between one and three months after their escape: 4/1
  • between three and six months after their escape: 10/1
  • between six months and one year after their escape: 20/1
  • more than one year after their escape: 75/1

Odds on how Matt and Sweat will be caught:

  • stealing a car: 8/1
  • checking into a hotel: 10/1
  • robbing a bank: 50/1
  • with pants down: 1000/1 (Such would be karmic.)

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