One City, Eight Teams: Odds on New York’s Octet

Yesterday, we looked at the forecast for the Windy City’s big five franchises (no offense, Chicago Fire). Today, it’s onto the city that never sleeps.

Have you ever wondered why New York is the city that never sleeps? It could be all the nightlife, the restaurants that don’t close, or maybe it’s the simple fact that with eight sports teams, at least one is bound to suck.

The team keeping New York up all night in anger this season is the New York Giants, and I guess the Mets, too – and soon to be Nets. But on the bright side, it’s likely at least one of them will be a winning team. Completing New York’s octet is the Jets, Yankees, Knicks, Nets, Rangers, and Islanders.

Which one of these teams will be the next to bring a championship to New York? And which will be the first to axe their coach? We’ve got the odds for all eight teams, along with some more specific props for each sport and team.

 

Which New York coach/manager will be fired first

  • Ben McAdoo, Giants: 1/1
  • Jeff Hornacek, Knicks: 5/1
  • Kenny Atkinson, Nets: 9/1 
  • Todd Bowles, Jets: 11/1
  • Alain Vigneault, Rangers: 12/1
  • Doug Weight, Islanders: 14/1
  • Joe Girardi, Yankees: 99/1

The Mets job is effectively empty. Terry Collins has already announced that he’s stepping down, so we’ll leave out the manager-to-be.

There are two coaches in New York whose seats are hotter than the rest: Ben McAdoo and Jeff Hornacek. The former has turned the Giants’ offense into an unwatchable mess. McAdoo also has scheduling working against him, since the NFL season will be over before we are even halfway through the NBA and NHL seasons.

The latter has been set up by the Knicks to fail. Hornacek was asked to run the triangle offense with players that don’t fit the scheme. In spite of only having one season under his belt, if he doesn’t get the Knicks into the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference, he’s likely to be scapegoated.

Joe Girardi is at the bottom for a couple reasons: (a) the Yankees’ skipper has taken the team much further than most were expecting this season, and has a very promising, young core to continue building off the success of 2017; (b) his contract is up this year, so he technically won’t be “fired” even if the Yankees do something stupid and don’t re-up him. (Hooray for technicalities! They make my job so much easier sometimes.)

Which New York team will win the city’s next championship

  • Yankees: 7/2
  • Rangers: 4/1
  • Mets: 9/2
  • Giants: 5/1
  • Knicks: 8/1
  • Islanders: 19/1
  • Jets: 19/1
  • Nets: 55/1

The Yankees are not far off with their current roster, and everyone and their mother knows the franchise will spend in free agency. The 2018 free agent crop isn’t loaded with stars, but the next one will be with the likes of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Josh Donaldson (and possibly Clayton Kershaw and David Price) all likely to hit the open market. Odds are the Yankees get at least on of those names.

The Nets are the furthest from a championship. Not only does the team stink right now, but they don’t even have a first-round pick next year (again) to start adding the requisite talent to make them a competitive group. It’s going to be a very long rebuild in Brooklyn, and the process has barely begun.

Which New York team will get a no. 1-overall draft pick first:

  • Giants: 3/1
  • Islanders: 7/2
  • Nets: 5/1
  • Jets: 7/1
  • Knicks: 10/1
  • Mets: 12/1
  • Rangers: 20/1
  • Yankees: 50/1

Good news, Giants fans: this year’s miserable, so-far winless season could soon result in the top pick in the NFL Draft. Just imagine Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen taking snaps behind center, or Saquon Barkley running roughshod over opposing linebackers. It sure is nicer than watching this year’s team, isn’t it? Keep on daydreaming and we’ll let you know when the combine starts.

Who will be the Mets’ next manager

Image result for joe girardi yankees
Yankees manager Joe Girardi (Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License])
  • Brad Ausmus: 5/2
  • Joe Girardi: 3/1
  • Robin Ventura: 9/2
  • Alex Cora: 9/1
  • Joe McEwing: 20/1
  • Kevin Long: 25/1
  • Chip Hale: 30/1
  • FIELD: 15/1

Brad Ausmus could find himself back in the majors sooner rather than later. The recently fired Tigers skipper is reportedly at the top of the Mets’ wishlist to replace Terry Collins. The club is said to be enamoured with his youthful energy and analytics-driven approach and could make him an offer very soon.

The Mets are also believed to be interested in Joe Girardi. The Yankees manager is without a contract for 2018 and would easily be the biggest name on the manager market if the Yankees don’t re-sign him. Girardi would be expensive, but the Mets may not be able to resist the temptation to finally steal some headlines from their cross-town rivals.

Odds the Jets finish 2017 with a better record than the Giants: 1/2

Heading into the 2017 season, the Giants were Super Bowl favorites in the eyes of many, while the Jets were the near-unanimous pick to obtain the first-overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft. Oh, how a few weeks can change things.

With the way the Giants are playing, and the Odell Beckham Jr (OBJ) injury, they’ll be lucky to match the three wins the Jets currently have. Meanwhile, the Jets get another game with the lowly Dolphins in Week 7, a second shot at Buffalo in Week 9, and winnable games against the Saints and Chargers late in the season.

Odds the Nets finish 2017-18 with a better record than the Knicks: 2/3

Choosing between the Nets and the Knicks is truly a matter of picking your poison. Do you choose the rudderless franchise full of head cases and undrafted rejects, or do you choose the team full of unknown European players with unpronounceable names? It isn’t an easy — or enviable -– decision.  We’re personally going to pick the Nets on the strength of the team’s dynamic backcourt. Jeremy Lin and D’Angelo Russell are both superb playmakers who can get to the lane at will and have decent long-range strokes. Neither can guard a chair, but they can put up points in a hurry and have proven themselves capable of taking over games. The rest of the roster is full of blue-collar guys who will do all the little things to earn extra possessions and keep Brooklyn competitive against the East’s other cellar dwellers. At the end of the day, neither team is going to be fun to watch this season, but the Nets will be slightly more bearable.

Odds the Mets finish 2018 with a better record than the Yankees: 5/1

It’s hard to imagine many teams will be better than the Yankees in 2018. The Baby Bombers finished the 2017 season with a 91-71 record and are years ahead of their rebuilding schedule thanks to getting massive production from young stars, like Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird, all of whom are 25 or under. The big question this offseason will be how they build around that young core. C.C. Sabathia, Todd Frazier, and Matt Holiday are all free agents in 2018 and none will come cheaply.

The Mets, on the other hand, will have far bigger questions to address next season. The team’s starting rotation was ravaged by injuries once again, and the club will have to hope that Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, and Robert Gsellman can all bounce back in time for Spring Training. The Mets will also have to find some big bats to replace the production they lost when they unloaded Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce at the trade deadline. Add it all up and it’s easy to see why New York will belong to the Yankees once again in 2018.

Odds the Islanders finish 2017-18 with a better record than the Rangers: 3/2

The Rangers have stumbled out of the gate, but this team has amassed more than 100 points in three consecutive seasons. Henrik Lundqvist will figure it out between the pipes, and Rick Nash and Jimmy Vesey will start putting the puck in the net. It’s way too early to panic.

The Islanders’ John Tavares may be one of the best players in hockey, but his supporting cast is holding him back. While the addition of Jordan Eberle in the offseason was a good start, the Islanders are stuck in a tough spot where they’re waiting on talent to mature. If Brock Nelson and Calvin de Haan can take the next steps in their respective careers and the franchise is able to re-sign Tavares after this season, the Islanders could quickly take over New York hockey. But that’s not happening this year.

The Giants woes

O/U date of the Giants’ first 2017 win: November 13

The Giants next three games are at Denver and then home to the Seahawks and Rams. Without OBJ, it’s going to be awfully tough for the G-Men to put any points on the board against those tough defenses. But on November 12, Eli Manning and company head to San Francisco, where they’ll have a great shot at recording their first win of the season.

O/U games played for OBJ in 2018: 14.5

Over the last two years, Beckham has only missed one game. This ankle injury isn’t something that will linger. But with the amount of targets he sees, and defensive backs being forced to target receivers low, it’s hard to predict that the 25-year-old will be able to play a full 16-game season.

O/U amount of guaranteed money in OBJ’s next contract: $53.5 million

Regardless of whether the three-time Pro Bowl receiver plays 16 games next season, he will receive a record-breaking contract when he becomes a free agent after the 2018 season (if the Giants don’t extend him earlier). Antonio Brown just inked a four-year, $68 million contract — the highest average salary per year for a WR — but only $19 million was guaranteed. DeAndre Hopkins signed for the most guaranteed money ever handed to a WR — $49 million — this offseason. Beckham’s next contract will break both records.

AlexanderP

Alexander is the MTS editor-in-chief. Frank, Alex, and Geoff brought him in when they realized that their betting expertise far surpassed their grammatical abilities. He loves overanalyzing college basketball trends. Talking to him during the first weekend of March Madness is like talking to a wall. A very focused wall, but a wall nonetheless.