Odds and Outside the Box Options at the U.S. Open

While Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy are the favorites to win the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in Washington, a couple long-shots – Tiger Woods and 15-year-old Cole Hammer – are receiving most of the media attention leading up to the tournament.

How are the four days on the links-style course going to play out? Let’s take a look at the odds for the top dogs and some fun props ahead of the second major of the year, which starts Thursday, June 18. (Scroll to the bottom for the numbers in handy list-format.)

The Favorites:

World No. 1 Rory McIlroy (5/1) comes in at the top of the odds, followed closely by Masters winner Spieth (7/1). After that, there is a significant drop to the next crop of favorites, which includes Dustin Johnson (14/1), Justin Rose (18/1), and Rickie Fowler (18/1). 

The Second Tier:

Adam Scott (20/1) heads the next quintet, along with five-time runner up Phil Mickelson (20/1), Jason Day (22/1), Henrik Stenson (25/1), and Bubba Watson (28/1). Expect at least a couple of these ultra-experienced names to be in the thick of it come Sunday.

The Longshots

It’s strange to call Tiger Woods (35/1) – three-time U.S. Open winner and eight-time top-ten finisher – a longshot, but after firing a career-worst round recently, he has some of the longest odds to win a major in his career. Woods is also 7/5 to miss the cut, and 15/1 to shoot a round of 85 or worse.

Hammer (500/1) earned a spot in the field thanks to rounds of 64 and 68 at Sectional Qualifying in Dallas. The youngster will be fun to cheer for, but has no real shot of winning. That said, sportsbooks aren’t ruling out the possibility that he’ll at least be competitive; Hammer is 7/2 to make the cut.

Looking to the future – as 15-year-olds are wont to make us do – the question is: who’s more likely to win a U.S. Open in the coming years, the rising Hammer or the declining Woods? Right now, the edge still goes to Le Tigre, but not by too much. Hammer is 3/1 to win a U.S. Open before Woods triumphs again.

The Props:

As for the tournament as a whole, the over/under on the champion’s final score is 276 (-4), and the odds that someone fires a hole-in-one during the four-day tourney are 3/1.

Because the final round will air in primetime, the over/under on the TV rating for Sunday’s coverage on Fox is 6.6.

Lastly, the popular opinion is that the links-style course will be an unpopular venue. How many golfers will muster the gumption to complain about the course? Well, golfers aren’t exactly the most flexible human beings. It’s a good bet everyone who misses the cut will be upset plus several others. In our view, at least 65 pissed off golfers will voice their displeasure in some way, shape, or form.

We’ll leave you with the aforementioned list, which recaps the above …

2015 U.S. Open Odds and Props:

Odds to win:

  • Rory McIlroy: 5/1
  • Jordan Spieth: 7/1
  • Dustin Johnson: 14/1
  • Justin Rose: 18/1
  • Rickie Fowler: 18/1
  • Adam Scott: 20/1
  • Phil Mickelson: 20/1
  • Jason Day: 22/1
  • Henrik Stenson: 25/1
  • Bubba Watson: 28/1
  • Tiger Woods: 35/1
  • Cole Hammer: 500/1

Odds Cole Hammer wins a U.S. Open before Tiger Woods wins another: 3/1

Over/under on the final score for the winner: 276 (-4)

Odds of there being a hole-in-one: 3/1

Over/under on the TV rating for the final round: 6.6

Over/under on how many golfers will complain about Chambers Bay: 65

 

(Photo credit: TourProGolfClubs [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)