Santa Claus Odds (Updated)

Over the years, Christmas has lost some of its magic. In the past, we could attribute Santa’s amazing feats to Christmas miracles and magic. Children nowadays are too cynical or have access to Google. Their questions get progressively complicated: How does Santa determine who is naughty or nice? Will it snow on Christmas? On top of that, they want facts to back up your lies. The nerve!

Well parents, MTS has your back.

Last year we set some serious and completely real Santa Claus odds. This time around, we revisit some of these, plus some other Christmas-related odds for your kids to ponder over. At the very least, they will distract you from your rising Visa bill this holiday season.

Real and Serious Santa Claus Odds:

Odds Santa gets snowed in: 100/1

Old Saint Nick has 364 days to prepare for one work day. So it’s unlikely that weather will hamper his big day. Global warming may also make things easier down the road.

Odds that Santa shaves off his beard: 1000/1

Santa never messes with his iconic white beard. It serves as a natural insulator and protects his face from the elements. Not to mention, five-o-clock shadows are so in right now.

Odds on how Santa keeps track of who is naughty or nice:

  • Taps NSA records: 2/1
  • Gets intel from Elf on the Shelf network: 5/1
  • Gets intel from your parents: 8/1

How does Santa keep track of who’s naughty or nice when there are billions of children around the world? He simply taps into sophisticated surveillance systems already in place. Santa is watching you via remote controlled drones, surveillance cameras, and recorded cell phone transcripts. Considering he only really works one day a year, he’s got a lot of disposal time on his hands.

Biggest challenges facing Santa this year:

  • Obesity (too many sandwiches): 3/1
  • Diabetes (too many cookies): 5/1
  • Upset stomach (too much milk): 8/1
  • Alcohol poisoning (too much egg nog): 15/1

Bad weather is the least of Santa’s problems. According to some estimates, Santa will consume nearly 150 billion calories on Christmas Eve. That’s over 60,000-times his recommended daily limit. Either Santa has bulimia, or he donates some of the excess calories to his elves and reindeer.

Over/Under on Santa’s weight: 350 (see above)

Basically one pound for every day of the year Santa sits on his butt, minus a few pounds to account for stress weight.

Other Christmas Odds:

Odds to be the top trending tech gift this Christmas:

  • Apple Watch: 6/1
  • Microsoft Surface Pro 4: 10/1
  • Flatscreen TVs: 15/1
  • Apple iPhones: 17/1
  • Beats by Dre Headphones: 20/1

Wearables and tablets continue to top gift guides as the must-have items of the season. The Apple Watch improves time-reading technology by replacing a standard watch with an electronic timepiece that has a battery life of one day. Genius Apple.

Odds to be the top trending children’s toy this Christmas:

  • Star Wars Lego sets: 4/1
  • Disney’s Frozen toys: 6/1
  • Minecraft Lego sets: 10/1
  • Minions toys: 15/1
  • BeatBo: 22/1

Children are so impressionable, so it’s no surprise why movies dominate the list of trending kids toys this holiday season. It’s worth noting that the numbers for Star Wars Lego Sets are artificially high due to the number of fanboys posing as children.

Odds major cities will see a white Christmas:

  • Oslo, Norway: 3/5
  • Toronto, Canada: 4/5
  • New York, USA: 4/3
  • Tokyo, Japan: 3/2
  • Paris, France: 3/1
  • London, England: 4/1
  • Shanghai, China: 6/1
  • Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: 10000/1
  • Johannesburg, South Africa: 10000/1
  • Sydney, Australia: OFF

A white Christmas could be a reality for many cities this year as forecasters are predicting the end of 2015 to be colder than normal. Many parts of the world have already seen their first snowfalls. With the exception of the Southern Hemisphere, and parts of the Pacific Northwest (El Nino effect), many cities have a good probability of snow on the 25th of December.

(Photo credit: Douglas Rahden [Attribution], via Wikimedia Commons)