In a recent article, I previewed the newly-announced Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin fight. This fight has been a long time coming, so let’s look at some of the prop odds for the middleweight super-fight.
Where will it take place? How will it end? Will there be a rematch? How many buys will it take?
All these questions and more answered here!
Odds the fight takes place in:
Las Vegas: 9/11
New York City: 13/7
For an event like this, it’s hard to look past the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas or Madison Square Garden in New York. Don’t rule out Texas, though. AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys, is also on the cards.
Odds a fighter misses weight: 50/1
Gennady Golovkin has fought at middleweight for his entire career and has never missed weight. Alvarez is pretty small for a middleweight and is coming off a five-fight series at the 155 catch-weight.
This is a fight between two disciplined professionals. I don’t think either will have trouble making weight.
Odds fight ends by:
Split decision: 17/3
We’re not used to seeing a Golovkin fight go the distance, but we saw just that in his last bout against Danny Jacobs. Granted, Jacobs did enter the ring significantly heavier than Golovkin. Alvarez took Chávez Jr. to decision in a one-sided snooze-fest, but it’s unclear whether Alvarez was unable to put Chavez away or was just toying with him.
Odds that a rematch takes place: 2/1
Interestingly, Canelo has a rematch clause while Triple-G does not. That seems a little strange, considering it’s Golovkin putting his titles on the line. Unless it’s a devastating defeat (and it could be), Alvarez would probably take the chance to redeem himself.
Odds Golovkin retires after the fight: 25/1
At 35 years old, Golovkin is at the tail-end of his career. The upcoming fight will be a career high for him and he’ll make enough to retire many times over. If he loses, he’ll be stripped of his titles and probably won’t get a rematch. If he wins, there’s still a fight with WBO champ Billy Joe Saunders to unify the division.
Triple-G’s days are numbered, but I think he’s still got a few fights left in him.
O/U on pay-per-view buys: 1,000,000
Alvarez vs. Chavez Jr. is estimated to have raked in a million buys. I hope, for the sake of boxing, that the Golovkin fight does better. But the Cinco de Mayo fight was marketed superbly and even though it had little sporting significance, it meant a whole lot to Mexican boxing.
After Mayweather, Alvarez is the PPV king. His 2015 fight against Miguel Cotto pulled in 900,000 buys, while the Amir Khan bout went for 600,000. Then there’s the Mayweather fight, which went for a whopping 2,200,000.
Golovkin, on the other hand, hasn’t pulled in big numbers in the past. His last fight against Danny Jacobs only went for 170,000. Despite being champion, he’s always struggled to land the big fights.
Boxing fans have been demanding this fight for some time. If promoted correctly, it could be the biggest fight of the year (ignoring Mayweather v McGregor, of course).
Photo credit: Ver en vivo En Directo [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]