Figueiredo vs. Benavidez II Betting Preview, Odds & Prediction for UFC on ESPN+ 30

  • Date & Location: Saturday July 18 @ Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE
  • Odds: Figueiredo -205, Benavidez +165
  • Prediction: Figueiredo by decision

On July 18, the UFC makes a second effort to name a flyweight champion when top ranked title contenders Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez meet for a second time at Abu Dhabi’s Yas Island, which also hosted UFC 251. The first fight between these two ended with Figueiredo scoring a second-round knockout. However, Figueiredo was ineligible for the title because he missed weight. Figueiredo came in at 127.5 pounds for the 125 pound matchup.

FIGUEIREDO vs. BENAVIDEZ ODDS

Fighter Odds
Deiveson Figueiredo -205
Joseph Benavidez +165

FIGUEIREDO vs. BENAVIDEZ PREDICTION & PICK

The first time these two met, I went with Benavidez based on his experience and offensive output. After seeing how that first fight ended — with a Figueiredo knockout win — I’m going to switch my pick in this rematch. Benavidez landed 46 significant strikes to Figueiredo’s 25, but they did not have much effect on Figueiredo. I think Figueiredo’s power is going to be the difference in this rematch.

Pick: Figueiredo (-205)

BETTING VALUE WITH FIGUEIREDO

Figueiredo is one of the most powerful strikers in the UFC’s flyweight division. He has ended half of his 18 fights by knockout so there is always the chance he could reach double digits in the knockout department when he faces Benavidez on Saturday.

Benavidez has lost six fights. Two of those have been knockout defeats and one — his loss to Figueiredo — came after a headbutt stunned and bloodied Benavidez. Barring another headbutt or something strange, I think Figueiredo wins this one by way of decision, but a knockout bet is not completely out of line.

WHO HAS THE EDGE?

The first fight, as brief as it was, showed us a lot. Figueiredo was able to walk through the punches of his opponent while Benavidez got dropped by Figueiredo. Yes, the knockout came after a headbutt, but Figueiredo does have the ability to stun and hurt Benavidez with his power strikes. The same cannot be said of Benavidez.

RECENT FIGHTS

Outside of their recent meeting, here is how things shake out between Figueiredo and Benavidez.

Benavidez defeated Henry Cejudo in 2016 and then took more than two years off to rehab an injured knee that required surgery. When he returned to action in 2018, he suffered his only loss to a man not named Dominick Cruz or Demetrious Johnson when he dropped a split decision to Sergio Pettis. That loss ended a six-fight winning streak. He has three victories since the Pettis setback with two knockout wins and two “Performance of the Night” bonus awards.

Figueiredo opened his career on a 15-0 run. His sole loss was a 2019 unanimous decision defeat to Jussier Formiga. Since that setback, he is 3-0 with a submission win over Tim Elliott before his win over Benavidez.

FIGHT STATS:

FIGUEIREDO vs. BENAVIDEZ

Deiveson Figueiredo Category Joseph Benavidez
32 Age 35
18-1 Record 28-6
9 Knockout Wins 8
6 Submission Wins 9
3 Decision Wins 11
5’5″ Height 5’4″
125 Weight 125
68″ Reach 65″
 Orthodox Stance Southpaw
2.54 Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.53
52% Striking Accuracy 34%
2.76 Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 2.55
52% Striking Defense 63%
1.81 Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes 1.50
50% Takedown Accuracy 30%
61% Takedown Defense 65%
2.4 Submission Average Per 15 Minutes 0.6

WHAT’S AT STAKE

Benavidez is one of the best UFC/WEC fighters never to hold a title. He had opportunities to capture gold in 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2020. His record since his most recent title shot is 9-2. One of those victories was a split decision win over a pre-championship winning Cejudo. It took Benavidez more than six years to get his back to a title fight. That tells you if he loses on Saturday, his days of title shots are most likely at an end.

As for Figueiredo, this is his second title fight. With a record of 18-1, a loss to Benavidez should not prevent him from working himself back into the title picture.

Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He currently covers MMA for MMA Junkie and Forbes. He has also written for Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.