- Date & Location: Saturday, Feb. 20, 2021
- Odds: Floyd Mayweather (-3500) vs. Logan Paul (+1200) via Bovada
- Prediction: Mayweather via KO/TKO
Floyd Mayweather Jr., is going to fight again. One of the most accomplished and skilled boxers in the history of the sport, Mayweather returns to the ring on February 20, 2021, to face Logan Paul. Yes, the 50-0 Mayweather faces the 0-1 Paul. The matchup is being promoted as a “super exhibition.”
Mayweather’s most recent outing was his 10th round TKO win over UFC fighter Conor McGregor in 2017. Prior to that, Mayweather fought twice in 2015. He won decisions over Manny Pacquiao and Andre Berto in those matchups. Mayweather met kickboxer Tenshin Nasukawa in a three-round exhibition match on December 31, 2018. Mayweather knocked Tenshin down three times in the first round of that fight before his opponent’s corner waved off the contest.
Paul gained his fame via YouTube. His sole professional boxing match came in November 2019 when fellow YouTube star KSI defeated him via a split decision in a six-round bout.
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MAYWEATHER vs. PAUL ODDS
|Fighter||Odds (via BetOnline)|
MAYWEATHER vs. PAUL PREDICTION & PICK
To make this pick, I’ll look at Mayweather’s most recent boxing match against McGregor and his exhibition against Tenshin because I think this fight will resemble those contests. The question in both outings was more about how and when Mayweather was going to win than if he was going to win. The odds alone here tell you that Mayweather is expected to win with little struggle.
The Mayweather vs. McGregor fight lasted 10 rounds. In the fight’s aftermath, the talk among many boxing fans and pundits was that Mayweather “carried” the contest to that length to give fans their money’s worth. As for the Tenshin exhibition, Mayweather seemed to have no interest in extending that one past the first round.
The Mayweather vs. Paul fight is a pay-per-view exhibition and I think it will go longer than the Tenshin exhibition. We don’t know how many rounds the fight is scheduled for, but I don’t see it going the distance and I see Mayweather winning.
Prediction: Mayweather at -5000 at SportsBetting.
BETTING VALUE WITH MAYWEATHER
The odds for a Mayweather win are not great for bettors. At -5000, a bettor would need to lay down $5,000 to claim $100. Right now the better option might be to look at the prop bets when they fill out for this matchup. Here are some early props via BetOnline.
|First to Bleed||Odds (via BetOnline)|
|Will Logan Paul Be Knocked Down||Odds (via BetOnline)|
|Will Fight Go The Distance||Odds (via BetOnline)|
As you can see, the prop bets offer more value for Mayweather than a straight win.
Pick: Mayweather via knockout.
TALE OF THE TAPE: MAYWEATHER vs PAUL
|Floyd Mayweather Jr.||Category||Logan Paul|
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
We don’t know what weight this fight will take place, but it’s likely that Paul, who weighed in at 189.6 pounds when he faced KSI, will have an advantage in that department over Mayweather, who weighed in under 150 pounds when he faced McGregor. Paul also has a height advantage. The likelihood that those physical advantages will help Paul are slim.
Skill-wise, Mayweather is light years ahead of Paul in every way.
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