- Date & Location: Saturday, June 13 @ Apex Gym in Las Vegas, NV
- Odds: Jessica Eye -120, Cynthia Calvillo -110
- Prediction: Eye via decision
On June 13, former UFC women’s flyweight title challenger Jessica Eye faces Cynthia Calvillo in the main event of UFC Fight Night 172. Eye, who is the No. 1-ranked fighter in the women’s 125-pound division, looks to add a fourth win to her record in the flyweight division against Calvillo, who is moving up to flyweight after a 5-1-1 run in the UFC’s strawweight division.
Eye began her UFC career at bantamweight. She struggled in the 135-pound weight class where she went 1-5-0-1 between 2013 and 2016. After her move to flyweight, Eye went 3-0 before losing to 125-pound champion Valentina Shevchenko in 2019.
Calvillo has struggled to make the strawweight limit as a member of the UFC roster. She missed the 115-pound limit in three of her past five fights. Eye came in heavy for her most recent flyweight bout.
EYE VS CALVILLO ODDS
EYE VS CALVILLO PREDICTION & PICK
This fight will come down to which fighter can impose her style on her opponent. Eye has focused on her boxing skills throughout her MMA career, while Calvillo has used her effective grappling to move up the rankings.
Eye struggled mightily as a bantamweight, but as soon as she could move to the 125-pound division, she found success. The three wins she earned in her first three bouts restored any confidence she might have lost during her rough bantamweight run. Even a vicious knockout in her title fight against Shevchenko failed to put any doubt in Eye’s mind.
The former title challenger has something to prove in this fight. Not only did she miss weight in her last outing, but she faces an interloper in her division in Calvillo, who is looking to make a name for herself off the top-ranked women’s flyweight.
I believe Eye’s confidence and striking will carry her to victory.
Pick: Eye (-120)
BETTING VALUE WITH EYE
Eye is not a powerhouse; she only has three knockout wins in her career. Eye’s most recent KO victory came in 2014 when the cageside doctor stopped her fight opposite Leslie Smith when Smith’s cauliflower ear literally exploded and sent a cascade of blood down the side of her head.
Despite her lack of finishing power, Eye sets a solid pace and she puts forth a steady barrage of strikes. In her most recent win, Eye’s offensive output was the highest in the third and final round.
Eye probably won’t score a knockout or submission, but she can be trusted to deliver a steady diet of strikes to her opponent throughout the entire fight.
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
With her success at 125 pounds, Eye should have the edge in this matchup, but Calvillo is a wild card. It’s hard to tell how badly the weight cuts to 115 pounds have affected Calvillo’s past performances. With less weight to cut, Calvillo could be a dynamo at flyweight.
We should get an excellent idea where Calvillo stands in her new division with her matchup against the No. 1-ranked Eye.
Eye looked good in the run to her shot at Shevchenko’s title. However, she was outmatched in that contest and she was knocked out in incredibly scary fashion.
Eye wasted little time getting back in the octagon. Six months after the first knockout loss of her career, Eye was back in action. She scored a unanimous decision win over Viviane Araujo in that outing.
Calvillo began her career on a 6-0 run. Her first loss came to former UFC strawweight champion Carla Esparza. She went 2-0-1 after that setback. Calvillo’s most recent bout was a December draw with Marina Rodriguez.
The biggest question facing Calvillo is just how much the weight cut to 115 messed with her performances during her career.
FIGHT STATS: EYE VS CALVILLO
|Jessica Eye||Category||Cynthia Calvillo|
|3.79||Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute||4.12|
|3.39||Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute||3.54|
|0.46||Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes||1.83|
|0.70||Submission Average Per 15 Minutes||1.6|
WHAT’S AT STAKE
With Eye’s status as the No. 1-ranked contender in the women’s flyweight division, this fight is an important one. A win over Eye makes Calvillo an instant top contender for the flyweight title.
For Eye, a win keeps her in the mix for a rematch against Shevchenko. It’s doubtful that Eye will get a second title shot with a victory over Calvillo, but stranger things have happened with the UFC.