Manny Pacquiao vs Adrien Broner: Odds and Preview

  • Manny Pacquiao fights Adrien Broner on January 19th at the MGM Grand Garden Arena
  • Pacquiao holds the regular WBA title and will enter the ring as the clear favorite
  • But is there value in picking the 40-year-old Filipino at such short odds?

Manny Pacquiao will take on Adrien Broner on January 19th at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Filipino future hall-of-famer now holds the regular WBA welterweight title, and he puts it on the line against one of the biggest personalities in the sport.

This isn’t the best fight available in the welterweight division, but it is one of the most lucrative. A lot is on the line. Both fighters are looking to revitalize their careers, and another loss for either could mark the beginning of the end.

Manny Pacquiao vs Adrien Broner Odds

Fighter Odds to Win at Bovada (01/11/19)
Manny Pacquiao -300
Adrien Broner +230

All odds are available at Bovada.

Recent Fight Record

After losing his WBO welterweight title in a shocking upset to Jeff Horn, Manny Pacquiao bounced back by defeating Lucas Matthysse in devastating fashion. He dominated the Argentinian slugger for six rounds before knocking him out in the seventh, securing his first stoppage in almost a decade.

But the win isn’t as impressive as some claim. Matthysse was already on the verge of retirement and took the fight simply for a career payday. He hung up his gloves a couple of weeks after the loss. Pacquiao ran through a boxer who had little left to give and was already on his way out. Also, the fight was held in Malaysia where testing is virtually nonexistent.

Adrien Broner is only 29, but it already seems his best years may be behind him. His humiliating loss to Marcos Maidana in 2013 started his downward spiral, and he’s lost every significant fight since. He was humbled by Shawn Porter when he returned to welterweight, and Mikey Garcia made easy work of him in 2017.

His most recent fight resulted in a draw against Jessie Vargas. Vargas dominated the earlier rounds but eventually ran out of steam, allowing Broner to pick off the later rounds. It wasn’t a bad performance by Broner, but it doesn’t compare favorably to Pacquiao vs Vargas, where Pacquiao cruised to a decision victory.

Tale of the Tape

Manny Pacquiao FIGHTER Adrien Broner
60-7-2 RECORD 33-3-1 (1 NC)
39 KNOCKOUTS 24
5 ft 5.5 in HEIGHT 5 ft 6.5 in
67 in REACH 69.5 in
40 AGE 29

The Stylistic Match-up

This is an interesting style match-up.

Pacquiao is a relentless pressure fighter. He swarms his opponents with volume and speed, constantly moving forward and taking the fight to his opponent. It’s not a style that ages well, though. The 40-year-old Pacquiao isn’t able to move like he used to, but he’s still able to hold his own against most of the welterweight division.

Broner is known for fighting on the back foot and has been criticized for his low work rate. He can be overly cautious with his punch selection, which often results in dropped rounds due to inactivity. However, when he’s able to find his rhythm and read his opponent, he’s one of the most dangerous guys in the game.

We’ve seen variations of this match-up before. Broner, who has long modeled himself after Mayweather, already has a template for success. If he can hold Pacquiao on the outside and pick him off when he tries to close the distance, then the fight is his. Pacquiao will try to swarm Broner and out-punch and out-work him.

Pick: Adrien Broner (+230)

There’s no value in picking Pacquiao at -300. His win over Lucas Matthysse is hardly that impressive, and his loss to Jeff Horn shows just how much he’s deteriorated over the last few years. Siding with Broner is never a comfortable feeling because you never know how focused and committed he is, but it seems he understands that a few more losses would spell the end of his career.