UFC 256: Figueredo vs. Moreno Betting Odds & Picks

  • Date & Location: Saturday Dec. 12 @ UFC Apex in Las Vegas
  • Odds: Deiveson Figueredo (-325) vs. Brandon Moreno (+250) via Bovada
  • Prediction: Figueredo via KO/TKO

Deiveson Figueredo and Brandon Moreno both fought on the UFC 255 fight card, which took place on November 21 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Figueredo, who is the UFC flyweight champion, defended his title for the first time that night with a first-round submission win over Alex Perez in the main event bout. Moreno defeated Brandon Royval via first-round TKO.  After the event, UFC president Dana White said he wanted to book Figueredo vs. Moreno for UFC 256. That night, the fighters verbally agreed to face each other.

Figueredo is on a five-fight winning streak. His past four victories have all come via stoppage, with three first-round submissions and one second-round TKO. Moreno is unbeaten in his past five fights, including a June 2019 victory where he claimed the LFA flyweight belt.

Today, Moreno is the No. 1 ranked contender in the official UFC flyweight rankings.

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FIGUEIREDO vs. MORENO ODDS

Fighter Odds (via MyBookie)
Deiveson Figueiredo -300
Brandon Moreno +240

FIGUEIREDO vs. MORENO PREDICTION & PICK

I thought the odds in the Figueredo vs. Alex Perez fights were not as close as they should have been. Looking back, I was wrong. Figueredo ran over Perez, submitting him in under two minutes.

Figueredo is that rare 125-pound fighter who can finish his opponents on the mat or on the feet. He has seven finishes in 10 UFC fights. He is on the precipice of becoming a star.  If he can get another finish and do so on short notice, I expect the UFC will give him a big push for his next pay-per-view headlining event.

I feel the short notice nature of this fight will play a big part in the outcome of this matchup and I believe the three weeks between fights will cause Figueredo to be more aggressive.

Pick: Figueiredo at -310 at Intertops.

BETTING VALUE WITH FIGUEIREDO

Figueredo is a finisher. With 10 UFC fights under his belt, he is tied for first in UFC flyweight history for most finishes (10) and submission attempts (18). No other flyweight has more knockdowns (8) and he has the highest submission average per 15 minutes (3.02). The defending champ is also tied for second with most knockout wins (4) and submission wins (3). He is also very accurate, landing at a 55.8 percent clip, which puts him second in the history of the UFC flyweight division. There is literally nothing that Figueredo can’t do and that makes him a scary fighter.

My feeling is that Figueredo will add another knockout to his record at UFC 256, but there is also the chance of a submission or a decision win. I would rank the potential outcomes in that order. I think an upset win for Moreno is incredibly unlikely.

Pick: Moreno by KO/TKO at -285 at SportsBetting.ag

WHO HAS THE EDGE?

Figueredo is the better fighter in every way. The one concern I have with the flyweight champ is the weight cut. Figueredo has struggled with weight cuts in the past so that could be something to watch ahead of this fight. However, since he knew about the Moreno matchup before he left the arena after his win over Perez, I don’t think Figueredo will blow up too much and that he should have an okay weight cut ahead of UFC 256. If there is a worry, perhaps wait to see how the weigh-in plays out for this contest.

FIGHT STATS: FIGUEIREDO vs. MORENO

Deiveson Figueiredo Category Brandon Moreno
32 Age 26
20-1 Record 18-5-1
9 Knockout Wins 3
8 Submission Wins 10
3 Decision Wins 5
5’5″ Height 5’7″
125 Weight 125
68″ Reach 70″
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
2.79 Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.01
55% Striking Accuracy 35%
2.82 Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 2.96
52% Striking Defense 63%
1.68 Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes 1.93
50% Takedown Accuracy 44%
63% Takedown Defense 69%
3.0 Submission Average Per 15 Minutes 0.8

WHAT’S AT STAKE

Figueredo is building his legacy in the UFC flyweight division. If he can get another finish here, fans will hear talk about how dominant he is as the 125-pound champion.

A win for Moreno will be a huge step back for Figueredo. He would probably earn an immediate rematch, but that loss will stick with Figueredo, even if he wins a second meeting.

Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He currently covers MMA for MMA Junkie and Forbes. He has also written for Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.