UFC Fight Night 156: Shevchenko vs Carmouche 2 Betting Preview, Odds & Prediction

  • UFC women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko faces no. 3-ranked Liz Carmouche at UFC Fight Night 156 (Sat., Aug. 10)
  • What’s changed since Carmouche won their first meeting in 2010?
  • Is Shevchenko as good as advertised at flyweight? 

The UFC visits another new market this week for Fight Night 156 (Aug. 10). This Saturday, the promotion travels to the southern coast of South America, where it sets down at Antel Arena in Montevideo, Uruguay.

The entire fight card streams on ESPN+ with prelims kicking off at 5:00 PM ET. The main card is headlined by a title fight between women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko and former UFC and Strikeforce women’s bantamweight title challenger Liz Carmouche.

Shevchenko vs Carmouche 2 Moneyline Odds

Fighter Odds (as of Aug. 7)
Valentina Shevchenko -1100
Liz Carmouche +650

Carmouche won the first meeting between these two back in 2010. That fight ended via doctor stoppage under the C3 Fights banner

Recent Fights

Since she dropped to flyweight, Shevchenko has looked excellent. She annihilated Priscila Cachoeira in 2018 in a fight that should have never been booked. Shevchenko followed that with a five-round decision win over ex-strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk that earned her the 125-pound title. In her most recent bout, Shevchenko starched Jessica Eye in the second-round of their June matchup with one of the most devastating — and scary — head-kick knockouts of the year.

Of Shevchenko’s three career losses, two have been decision setbacks to current two-division champion Amanda Nunes. The other is her TKO loss to Carmouche.

In her most recent bout, Shevchenko starched Jessica Eye in the second-round of their June matchup with one of the most devastating — and scary — head-kick knockouts of the year.

Carmouche moved to flyweight in 2017. She dropped her debut via split decision to Alexis Davis. She has since earned two decision victories. Her most recent contest was a February triumph over Lucie Pudilova. Shevchenko’s older sister, Antonina, submitted Pudilova at this past weekend’s UFC on ESPN 5 card.

This bout marks Carmouche’s third attempt at a major MMA title. She lost her first two title fights, one in Strikeforce and one with the UFC, by submission.

The First Meeting

At the time of the first meeting between these two, Shevchenko was 7-0 but had not fought in MMA for four years. During that break, she was busy collecting wins and championships in Muay Thai and kickboxing. Carmouche was 4-0 and still in her first year of professional MMA competition. An upkick from Carmouche opened a cut around the eye of Shevchenko in that contest and brought about the stoppage.

No video exists of the contest.

Shevchenko vs Carmouche 2 Tale of the Tape

 

Valentina Shevchenko Category Liz Carmouche
31 Age 35
17-3 Record 13-6
5 Knockout Wins 6
7 Submission Wins 2
5 Decision Wins 5
5’5″ Height 6’4″
125 pounds Weight 125 pounds
66″ Reach 66″
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
3.28 Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.09
51% Striking Accuracy 56%
2.44 Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 2.63
61% Striking Defense 61%
2.20 Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes 2.95
50% Takedown Accuracy 55%
73% Takedown Defense 67%
0.5 Submission Average Per 15 Minutes 0.4

Skill Sets Of Today

Shevchenko continued to split her time between Muay Thai and MMA until 2015 when she signed with the UFC as a bantamweight. (There was no UFC women’s flyweight division at the time.) She went 3-2 at 135 pounds before dropping to flyweight. Shevchenko is now one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC. She is a true martial artist who can do everything well. Shevchenko has excellent counters and can read movement like few others.

As expected, due to her background, Shevchenko is great in the clinch and on the break. She has also shown good wrestling skills in both takedowns and takedown defense. The champ’s strength at 125 pounds allows her to keep her opponents on the mat, tire them out and work for submissions, which is somewhat surprising due to her Muay Thai background.

Carmouche has had her ups and downs since her first matchup against Shevchenko. But she has gained 14 fights worth of experience since then and that will count for a lot in this contest, especially when it comes to overcoming the aura of invincibility that’s developed around the 125-pound version of Shevchenko.

Carmouche might be one of the strongest pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC. That could play to her advantage in this fight. If Carmouche can get Shevchenko to the mat, she might be able to hold the champion down and use ground strikes to finish the contest. The problem with that is Shevchenko has strong takedown defense and Carmouche has been submitted before.

Shevchenko vs Carmouche Prediction

Shevchenko’s aura of invincibility is not built on hype. She is as good as advertised and the creation of the 125-pound division in the UFC has served her incredibly well. Carmouche is no slouch. She’ll most likely keep herself in the mix near the top of the flyweight division for quite a while, but she’s just not well-rounded enough to deal with the tools the champion brings to the octagon.

Pick: Valentina Shevchenko (-1100)

Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He currently covers MMA for MMA Junkie and Forbes. He has also written for Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.