UFC Fight Night 165: Edgar vs Jung Betting Preview, Odds & Prediction

  • Can Frankie Edgar make the most of a late notice fight against “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung?
  • Can Jung earn his first winning streak since he went 3-0 in 2011-12?
  • Will the winner of this 145-pound matchup earn a title elimination fight?

On Saturday, Dec. 21, the UFC closes out its schedule for 2019 when it travels to Sajik Arena in Busan, South Korea for UFC Fight Night 165. The entire event streams on ESPN+, with the prelims starting at 2:00 a.m ET. The main card, which is headlined by a matchup between top-five ranked featherweights Edgar and Jung, kicks off at 5:00 AM ET.

EDGAR VS JUNG ODDS

Fighter Odds (as of Dec. 17)
Frankie Edgar +155
Chan Sung Jung -190

RECENT FIGHTS

Edgar, the former UFC lightweight titleholder, is 3-3 in his past six fights. That run comes on the heels of a five-fight winning streak. During that 11-fight stretch, the New Jersey native battled some of the best in the 145-pound division. Included in those contests are three failed attempts at the featherweight crown. Edgar’s most recent loss was a decision setback to Max Holloway in a title fight.

Jung, who hails from South Korea, lost a 2013 title fight to then-champion Jose Aldo. After that TKO defeat, Jung served his mandatory military service. He returned to action in 2017 and made short work of Dennis Bermudez, scoring a “Performance of the Night” bonus for his Round 1 KO. Since then, Jung has gone 1-1. He is coming off a 58-second knockout win over Renato Moicano in June. 

The former lightweight champ is ranked No. 4 in the official UFC featherweight rankings while Jung comes in at No. 6.

SKILL SETS

Edgar began his career as a wrestler, but he has developed significantly in all facets of MMA since his 2005 debut.  Edgar’s record might not be perfect, but he has only been knocked out once in seven losses. That stoppage came 13 years and 28 fights into his career.

As proof of the heart and toughness of the 38-year-old, Edgar returned to the octagon less than two months after that loss to score a decision victory over Cub Swanson.

The ex-title challenger has developed a solid striking game over the years. Edgar keeps a high pace and connects at a higher than average rate. Despite often giving up height and reach, Edgar is unafraid to strike with any opponent because of his output, cardio and defense. That striking defense ranks fifth among active UFC competitors.

Jung has a reputation as a wild man on his feet. He throws reckless strikes, but he throws with authority. With his power, Jung only needs one punch to end a fight. Jung has scored six post-fight bonuses in seven UFC contests. That fact reveals a great deal about the 32-year-old. He hasn’t gone the distance since 2010 when he was battling with the WEC. All seven of Jung’s UFC fights have ended early. He’s closed out three UFC battles in the first round.

The South Korean scrapper has been more aggressive since his UFC return. Over those bouts, he has landed 5.59 significant strikes per minute. Jung has also increased his output, attempting 12.91 significant strikes per minute.

Jung hasn’t gone the distance since 2010 when he was battling under the WEC banner. All seven of Jung’s UFC fights have ended early. He’s closed out three UFC battles in the first round.

Jung’s takedown defense, which stands at 75 percent, could give Edgar problems.

TALE OF THE TAPE

Frankie Edgar Chan Sung Jung
38 Age 32
22-7-1 Record 15-5
6 Knockout Wins 5
4 Submission Wins 8
12 Decision Wins 2
5’6″ Height 5’7″
145 Weight 145
68″ Reach 73″
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
3.60 Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.25
39% Striking Accuracy 39%
2.39 Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 3.77
69% Striking Defense 60%
2.36 Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes 0.81
31% Takedown Accuracy 41%
65% Takedown Defense 75%
0.30 Submission Average Per 15 Minutes 0.60

WHAT’S AT STAKE

This is a strange fight for Edgar. When he stepped in to face Jung, Edgar was on his way to 135 pounds to meet Cory Sandhagen in January. Edgar spoke about accepting this fight in the lead up to Saturday’s card.

“I feel like I was ready. My team liked the fight. Lately, I’m just about experiences and this is a good experience to have in my life. I’ve done a lot in this career. I’ve never taken a fight on two weeks’ notice across the country, so why not add that to the repertoire.”

With that, Edgar’s future is up in the air, but if he can score a title-fight eliminator on the strength of a win over Jung, it won’t be a surprise to see him stick around at featherweight, where he has failed three times to win the 145-pound title.

“I feel like I was ready. My team liked the fight. Lately, I’m just about experiences and this is a good experience to have in my life. I’ve done a lot in this career. I’ve never taken a fight on two weeks’ notice across the country, so why not add that to the repertoire.”

Jung has won several titles outside the UFC, with one failed attempt at UFC gold, he has to be anxious to earn himself another title shot. Like Edgar, Jung is an incredibly popular fight, one who the UFC has never been afraid to put in the main event spot. If Jung does win this contest, don’t be surprised if he gets booked in a title eliminator.

PREDICTION

Despite taking this fight on short notice, there are no concerns over Edgar’s preparation. He has established himself as a consummate professional. When Edgar steps into the octagon, he is ready and he has a solid game plan thanks to his team and coach Mark Henry. Another good thing is that Edgar and his team have already scouted Jung. The two were supposed to meet in 2018, which is another reason Edgar accepted this fight on short notice.

The concern for Edgar is the volume Jung will throw at him and his ability to get the fight to the mat and keep it there.  As for Jung, if he is wild in his striking, that will open up opportunities for Edgar to counter and complete takedowns.

As with Edgar, Jung’s team will have a scouting report. They will want their fighter to be a little more clean with his striking technique to avoid openings that Edgar can exploit. The question facing Jung is, will he be able to do what his team wants?

I believe the underdog will pull off the upset. Edgar is the more skilled fighter. That gives him more ways to claim victory.

Pick: Edgar (+155)

Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He currently covers MMA for MMA Junkie and Forbes. He has also written for Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.