Jason Flash
The FedEx Playoffs continue with the second leg – the 2021 BMW Championship – taking place at Caves Valley Golf Club – the first time the course has hosted a PGA Tour event. The course is known for its fast greens, rolling fairways and water hazards – making it a challenging course with a slope rating of 143. So, who of the remaining 70 golfers is the best bet to win the tournament? Find out in our 2021 BMW Championship betting preview.
Best Bets to win the 2021 BMW Championship
| To Win the 2021 BMW Championship |  |
| Jon Rahm | +650 |
| Justin Thomas | +1600 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
| Brooks Koepka | +2500 |
| Cameron Smith | +2500 |
| Dustin Johnson | +2500 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 |
| Rory McIlroy | +2500 |
| Tony Finau | +2500 |
More golfers are available to bet will win the tournament at Bovada.
Jon Rahm Opens as the Favourite to Repeat at the BMW Championship
While the venue changes, Jon Rahm opens as the favourite on golf betting odds to win the 2021 BMW Championship. Rahm entered the fourth round of the 2021 Northern Trust Championship, leading the field, before settling for third place. Rahm now sits in second place on the FedEx Cup standings – behind Northern Trust winner Tony Finau.
However, unlike Finau – who picked up only his second win on the Tour (the first coming at the 2016 Puerto Rico Open), Rahm is statistically one of the best and most reliable golfers. Rahm is the best golfer on the Tour in Strokes Gained: Total (at 2.112).
“I believe in myself. I believe in my team … I just continue to believe.”@TonyFinauGolf trusted the process and his confidence never wavered.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 24, 2021
His abilities off the tee – even if he ranks just outside the top-20 in driving distance – make him a threat at any event. Rahm will play the fairways to his advantage. We have seen him play them excellently this season, ranking second in Greens in Regulation at 71.98%.
Jon Rahm is continuing to play the best golf on the PGA Tour this season, and going against him (or at least not sprinkling some juice on him to win the tournament) is a scary endeavour. Overall, we love Rahm to go out and have a great outing, even if we also like the value of a few other golfers.
Jordan Spieth Has Experience at the Course
Despite the PGA Tour not hosting an event in Baltimore in 59 years, Jordan Spieth certainly gets in plenty of rounds of golf at Caves Valley Golf Club. As a face of Under Armour’s golf division, Spieth frequents the region to play golf with company executives.
Knowing the course gives him an advantage over some of the other guys with similar betting lines to win the tournament. He has vocally talked about how to play the course and the risk-reward aspects of some holes (without being too specific to give away his edge).
Spieth can be a bit erratic. After shooting a 62 in the second round of the Northern Trust (best of the day), he faltered in rounds three and four, finishing 73rd overall. His performance at the 2021 Open Championship was excellent – finishing second overall. He is capable of recovering from slow starts (finishing 19th at the 2021 US Open after recovering from a 77 in the first round).
Spieth has eight top-20 finishes in his last ten tournaments, including a win at the Valero Texas Open. If we get the best of Spieth this weekend, combined with his experience at the course and no cuts (70 players only meaning no cuts), we like Jordan Spieth as a challenge to Jon Rahm.
Best Underdog to Bet – Abraham Ancer at +5000
One of the most surprising golfers on the 2021 PGA Tour in this extended season is Abraham Ancer. He is coming off his best results ever at Majors, including an eighth-place at the 2021 PGA Championship and two top-30 finishes (tying for 13th in 2020, and tying for 26th in 2021) at the Masters.
Increíble! Un momento que tengo en mente desde los 6 años! Este 🏆 va para mi equipo/familia, sin ellos no estaría aquí 🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽
Unbelievable! A moment I’ve been playing in my head since I was 6 years old! This 🏆 goes to my team/family, without them I wouldn’t be here #TeamAncer pic.twitter.com/B7PuaopSpG
— Abraham Ancer (@Abraham_Ancer) August 9, 2021
Ancer just picked up his first win on the PGA Tour, winning the 2021 WGC St. Jude Invitational. Ancer ranks 17th in scoring averaging (69.934), and 20th in Strokes Gained: Total 1.269. He is sixth in driving accuracy percentage at 70.94%, which he can use to play the slopes well to make up for his below-average driving distance.
Ancer is also one of the best golfers this season when scrambling from the rough – ranking eighth at 65.00%. The course is said to have grown out the rough ahead of the tournament – meaning that the stat is more meaningful, especially with the slopes on the course.
Throw in his recent string of solid performances on the Tour – which includes five top-10 finishes in his last ten events, and we see the underdog value for betting on Ancer to win the Tournament.
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