The FedEx Playoffs start this week, with the top-125 players on the FedEx Cup standings qualifying for the 2021 North Trust Open. You can find the best players to bet to win the tournament in our 2021 Northern Trust Open betting preview below.
Best Bets to Win the 2021 Northern Trust Open
|To Win the Northern Trust Open|
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Jon Rahm opens the tournament as the favourite on golf betting odds – but with the field loaded with the best golfers in the world, there are many golfers who have a chance at winning the 2021 Northern Trust Open. So is Rahm the best bet, or are their other guys worth taking to win the tournament?
Can Dustin Johnson Continue his Dominance at the Northern Trust?
Few golfers – if any – over the last ten years can claim the level of dominance Dustin Johnson has at the Northern Trust. Johnson has three wins at the tournament – 2011, 2017 and 2020. The 2020 win was one of the best performances any golfers had at any course.
Johnson won the 2020 Northern Trust Open with a score of 254 or -30 under par. The 254 is one off Justin Thomas’s record of 253 for the fewest strokes in a single tournament, while the -30 score gave Justin Johnson an 11 strokes margin of victory, beating Ernie Els’ record of eight strokes in 1996.
That performance came at TPC Boston. The tournament this year is taking place at Liberty National in New Jersey. Liberty National previously hosted the event in 2019 – when Patrick Reed won. Johnson was in the mix in 2019 – going into the third round leading the tournament at -12. He faltered down the stretch (along with his Saturday partner Jordan Spieth, who shot -1 over the last two rounds), falling from first to 24th and finishing at -7.
The results were a little puzzling, although you could point to less favourable conditions later on Saturday and into Sunday. Because of that and how great Johnson looked after the first two rounds, we like his chances of playing four great rounds this year and repeating as the winner at the Northern Trust Open.
Collin Morikawa Always Worth Backing in 2021
Collin Morikawa’s been the best golfer on the PGA Tour in 2021 (or at least the only guy you can argue deserves the top spot over Jon Rahm). Morikawa – the FedEx Cup standings leader – is the best golfer this year on strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.965), second in greens in regulation percentage (71.81%), 11th in driving accuracy (69.43%), and the best golfer for the season in par 450-500 par efficiency.
He has been in the mix at eight of his last nine tournaments (excluding the Zurich Classic). He has eight finishes of 26th or better, including four top-five finishes at his previous five (including his win at the 2021 Open Championship).
Get someone that looks at you like @collin_morikawa looks at the Claret Jug 😍 #TheOpen pic.twitter.com/AvZ7Fe21v1
— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2021
He played at 2019 Northern Trust, finishing 52nd but scoring 68 in his final round to move up the leaderboard. He is a much more accomplished golfer since 2019 – with the skills that translate well to just about any course on the PGA Tour. And +1800, we are getting some of the best value on the two-time Majors winner this season.
Stats Point Towards Rory McIlroy Performing Well
The Liberty National Golf Club is best known for the five par 4s that range between 450 and 500 yards in length. This season, Rory ranks fifth on the Tour with strokes gained: off-the-tee at .702 and second in driving distance at 319.0 yards.
Rory’s been very effective lately playing the 450-500 yard par 4s – ranking ahead of Collin Morikawa for the best efficiency at that length (overall their last 24 rounds).
Rory played well at Liberty National in 2019 – finishing in sixth for the tournament at -12 (with all four rounds under par). If he can hit the ball well on the challenging par fours and replicate similar results from 2019, he could win the tournament and be in a great position in the second round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Brendon Todd, the Big Underdog, Bet at +12500
Like Rory McIlroy, Brendon Todd is one of the best golfers from 450 to 500 yards on par fours over the last few months – making him a good value pick at the Northern Trust Open. Todd and McIlroy are stylishly different golfers.
Who takes home the first win of the #FedExCup Playoffs? 🤔
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 16, 2021
Todd ranks 204th in driving distance (275.1 yards) but leads the PGA in driving accuracy percentage at 75.34%. The accuracy can help make up for the lack of distance on his drives – as position on the fairway will help make the longer second shots easier.
Todd is also excellent at putting. He ranks eighth in strokes gained: putting at .675 and fifth in total putting at 77.1. Todd is also coming off an impressive showing at the Wyndham Championship, finishing tied for tenth at -13. If he takes some of that momentum into the tournament and plays smart golf – using his accuracy and putting skills to maximize his performance – he is one underdog who has a chance at winning the tournament.
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