2015 Baseball Hall of Fame Induction Odds

RandyJohnson2The deadline for the Baseball Writers Association of America to vote on this year’s crop of Hall of Fame nominees is fast approaching. Though we won’t officially know who’s in and who’s out until tomorrow, several writers have already submitted their ballots.

Like exit polling during an election, Baseball Think Factory has tallied up the votes available so far. Looking at their totals, a few players appear to be absolute locks – as expected – while most are falling well short of the 75% threshold. There aren’t many inbetweeners.

After garnering an excruciating 74.8% of the vote last year, Craig Biggio is currently at 82.4% and should be feeling pretty darn comfortable. Mike Piazza (who got 62.2% of the vote last year) will still be holding his breath, though; he is about 2% above the threshold based on 27% of the ballots.

Given the results to date, we set the odds of induction for the 2015 nominees (and one notable write-in) as follows:

The Locks:

  • Randy Johnson: 1/200
  • Pedro Martinez: 1/150
  • John Smoltz: 1/50

The Virtual Lock:

  • Craig Biggio: 1/20

The Question Mark:

  • Mike Piazza: 5/6

Holding out Hope:

  • Tim Raines: 6/1
  • Jeff Bagwell: 7/1

Still in the Realm of Possibility:

  • Curt Schilling: 20/1
  • Barry Bonds: 35/1
  • Roger Clemens: 35/1

Getting a Few Nods:

  • Edgar Martinez: 50/1
  • Mike Mussina: 50/1
  • Alan Trammell: 50/1
  • Lee Smith: 75/1
  • Fred McGriff: 80/1
  • Jeff Kent: 100/1
  • Mark McGwire: 200/1
  • Gary Sheffield: 200/1
  • Larry Walker: 200/1
  • Don Mattingly: 500/1
  • Sammy Sosa: 500/1
  • Pete Rose (write-in): 1000/1 (Even if he got enough votes, he’d still have to be reinstated by the league. The odds of that aren’t great, either.)

Nowhere to be Found:

  • Rich Aurilia: 1000/1
  • Aaron Boone: 1000/1
  • Tony Clarke: 1000/1
  • Carlos Delgado: 1000/1
  • Darin Erstad: 1000/1
  • Cliff Floyd: 1000/1
  • Nomar Garciaparra: 1000/1
  • Brian Giles: 1000/1
  • Tom Gordon: 1000/1
  • Eddie Guardado: 1000/1
  • Troy Percival: 1000/1
  • Jason Schmitt: 1000/1

Keep an eye out for any snubs or surprises when the results are announced tomorrow (2:00 p.m. Eastern).

(Photo credit: “Googie man” (Wikipedia) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)

Geoff Johnson

MTS co-founder Geoff Johnson is a lifelong Mets fan, something he can't do anything about. He has a great track record when it comes to wagering on baseball – largely because he's more than willing to bet against the Mets. His career profits are impressive, but not quite as good as his handsome friend Frank Lorenzo. He wishes he hadn't let Frank write his profile.

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