Steve Starr
- BetOnline has released win totals for all 30 Major League Baseball teams
- The Houston Astros are expected to lead all teams with 96.5 projected wins
- The Red Sox and Yankees have both been pegged at 95.5 wins
You know it has been a long winter when it even snows in Vegas.
With the start of baseball season now under a month away, it’s officially time to start dreaming about summer. Specifically, it’s time to examine 2019 MLB Win Totals and dream up scenarios where we can make some money.
It’s safe to say that players’ union head Tony Clark is not impressed with many of the teams below, as he recently questioned if some franchises are even trying after a slew of free-agent stars saw slow markets for the second straight offseason. But, for gambling purposes, this is nothing new. We have the usual crop of big market contenders (Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers) and sleeper teams that could surprise if their prospects are ready for the show.
Let’s take a look at the projected win totals and odds available at BetOnline to see where the best value lies in both leagues.
2019 AL Win Totals
| Teams | Projected wins | Over odds | Under odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 60.5 | +115 | -145 |
| Boston Red Sox | 95.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Chicago White Sox | 75.5 | -125 | -105 |
| Cleveland Indians | 90.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Detroit Tigers | 67.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Houston Astros | 96.5 | -105 | -125 |
| Kansas City Royals | 69.5 | +105 | -135 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 83.5 | -125 | -105 |
| Minnesota Twins | 84.5 | -115 | -115 |
| New York Yankees | 95.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Oakland Athletics | 83.5 | -125 | -105 |
| Seattle Mariners | 74.5 | +125 | -155 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 84.5 | -105 | -125 |
| Texas Rangers | 70.5 | -125 | -105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 76.5 | +120 | -150 |
*All odds taken on 02/25/19
Houston Astros: Under 96.5 Wins
While the Astros have won more than 100 games in each of the past two seasons, I think they go under their 96.5 projected win total this year. After losing Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr., the club is missing 37 wins from last year’s starting rotation. Justin Verlander is also a first-time father at 36 years old. From experience, I can tell you that is not where you want to be.
Los Angeles Angels: Over 83.5 Wins
Staying in the AL West, I like the Angels to exceed their 83.5 projected win total. Los Angeles was one of the big winners of the offseason, adding outfielder Justin Upton and second baseman Ian Kinsler to an already powerful lineup. Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani has already resumed hitting and Mike Trout is in mid-season storm-tracking form.
Nothing like an Arizona snowstorm! @JessTara pic.twitter.com/sfZf8b1pGm
— Mike Trout (@MikeTrout) February 22, 2019
Tampa Bay Rays: Over 84.5 Wins
While three Rays are ranked among Sports Illustrated’s top 100 MLB Players of 2019, most experts believe it will be tough for Tampa Bay to duplicate last year’s 90-win season. There may also be in-season distractions with reports that the club could be soon playing half their games in Montreal, but I like the young Rays to surpass their 84.5 projected win total.
As good as the Red Sox and Yankees look, the AL East is balanced out by the existence of what should be two putrid Blue Jays and Orioles squads. Tampa also has reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell and young outfielder Tommy Pham, who actually might be looking forward to playing in Quebec after his recent rips of Rays fans.
2019 NL Win Totals
| Teams | Projected wins | Over odds | Under odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 77.5 | +110 | -140 |
| Atlanta Braves | 84.5 | -125 | -105 |
| Chicago Cubs | 88.5 | -140 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 77.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies | 82.5 | -150 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 94.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins | 65.5 | +105 | -135 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 84.5 | -160 | +130 |
| New York Mets | 84.5 | -120 | -110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 85.5 | -140 | +110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 77.5 | -115 | -115 |
| San Francisco Giants | 73.5 | -125 | -105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 88.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Washington Nationals | 87.5 | -125 | -105 |
San Francisco Giants: Under 73.5 Wins
Giants ace Madison Bumgarner said he would kill Bruce Bochy with his bare hands if he pitched an “opener” in front of him. Well, that may be an exaggeration, but let’s just say the three-time World Series champion isn’t a fan of the strategy that may or may not take major league baseball by storm this year. The good news for Bumgarner is he’s a year away from free agency and can share a taxi to the airport with fellow Bay Area superstar Kevin Durant. The bad news? The Giants look like a disaster offensively and Buster Posey had the same hip surgeon as my grandma Millie.
Bochy said Bumgarner sent him a text after Zaidi said Giants might use openers. “If you use an opener in my game I’m walking right out of the ballpark.”
— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) February 9, 2019
Washington Nationals: Over 87.5 Wins
Potentially on the verge of losing Bryce Harper to the NL East rival Phillies, I still believe Tony Kornheiser’s Nationals will improve on last year’s disappointing 82-80 record and win their fifth division title since 2012. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and free agent splash Patrick Corbin give Washington one of the best rotations in baseball. Combine that with a sexy young outfield and a strong defensive infield and you got yourself a winner.
Chicago Cubs: Under 88.5 Wins
In addition to winning their first World Series championship in 108 years in 2016, the Cubs have posted win totals of 103, 92 and 95 in the past three seasons, so why am I betting the under? First, the NL Central is loaded this year. The Cardinals added six-time All-Star first baseman (and my personal tax attorney) Paul Goldschmidt, the Brewers have reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich, and the Reds brought in the always entertaining Yasiel Puig to join Joey “I don’t care about Canada” Votto.
Secondly, PECOTA is down on the Cubs and it sounds like Joe Maddon and his horn-rimmed glasses are changing their tune about analytics now that the math is against them. The first tweet is from April 2018 while the second is from last week:
Joe Maddon on analytics: pic.twitter.com/xM72lcVBoK
— The Coaches’ Journal (@TheCoachJournal) April 12, 2018
Joe Maddon’s response to PECOTA projections that predict #Cubs will finish last in NL Central with 80-82 record: “Who knows why or how they arrive at that stuff? It really means nothing. You got to go out and play the game. You got to compete. I have zero interest in (that).”
— Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) February 14, 2019
While this isn’t exactly a smoking gun, I’ll roll the dice with the under.
