Updated 2021 Cy Young Picks in American and National League

  • Bovada‘s updated NL Cy Young odds list Jacob DeGrom (-700) as a massive favorite to win the award for the third time in his career
  • Oddsmakers still have Gerrit Cole (-175) leading the AL Cy Young race despite his recent struggles
  • The White Sox have two of the top pitchers in the American League with Carlos Rodon (+300) and Lance Lynn (+500)

Gerrit Cole was supposed to lead the Yankees to a World Series championship when he signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in 2019. Fast-forward a few years later and he’s the poster boy of Major League Baseball’s sticky-stuff crackdown as his club sits nowhere near playoff contention.

Struggling with a 5.24 ERA since the start of June, the 30-year-old right-hander is still the favorite to claim the AL Cy Young, but should he be?

Let’s check the latest award odds in both the American and National League, and as always, be sure to refer to our MLB 2021 betting guide for further wagering tips and advice.

2021 AL Cy Young Odds

Gerrit Cole-175
Carlos Rodon+300
Lance Lynn+500
Shane Bieber+1800
Nathan Eovaldi+2000

Ice cold Cole

Through the season’s first two months, Gerrit Cole (-175) enjoyed a sterling 1.78 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. But on June 3, the day of Cole’s 12th start of the year, word got out that MLB would soon begin enforcing its rule against foreign substances. In his six starts since, the Yankees ace has a 5.24 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He has also allowed as many home runs (five) in his last three trips to the mound as he did in his first 11.

While this could all be explained away as a cold streak, here’s the smoking gun, courtesy of Axios: Cole’s fastball spin rate his last year in Pittsburgh, when he had a career-worst 4.26 ERA, was well under league average. By 2019, when he was with a cheating Astros club whose pitchers aggressively used sticky stuff, it was the fourth-highest among all starters.

Instead of flushing your money down the toilet with a bet on Cole, consider White Sox starter Carlos Rodon (+300), who has a 2.31 ERA and 130 strikeouts against 26 walks over 89 2/3 innings, or his teammate Lance Lynn (+500), who leads all AL starters with a 1.99 ERA after only allowing two runs over his last three starts.

Expected back from the DL soon, reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber (+1800) is also in the mix with a 3.28 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 90.2 innings this season.

Carlos Rodonto win AL Cy Young
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Lance Lynnto win AL Cy Young
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2021 NL Cy Young Odds

Jacob DeGrom-700
Brandon Woodruff+1200
Kevin Gausman+1200
Corbin Burnes+1800
Yu Darvish+2000

DeGrom dominating

Things are far less interesting in the senior circuit, where Jacob DeGrom (-700) is now a massive favorite to win his third-career NL Cy Young Award. The Mets ace leads all of baseball with a 1.09 ERA and is in MVP contention after a record-breaking streak in which he allowed one or no earned runs in 12 straight starts from April 5 to June 21.

However, the 33-year-old is sitting out next week’s MLB All-Star Game ‘s after suffering multiple injury scares this year. In case he goes down, it wouldn’t hurt to sprinkle a little money on Brandon Woodruff (+1200), Kevin Gausman (+1200) or Corbin Burnes (+1800).

Burnes is the better bet of the Brewers starters. The 26-year-old opened the year with an MLB-record 58 consecutive strikeouts without a walk, and hasn’t slowed his pace down too much with a current strikeout-to-walk ratio of 128:15.

Meanwhile, Gausman has been excellent for the Giants, allowing two or fewer runs in 15 of his 17 starts this season. Unlike Cole, the 30-year-old’s spin rates have remained virtually unchanged since the sticky-stuff crackdown. Thanks to a devastating splitter, he has 44 strikeouts over his last seven trips to the mound.

Corbin Burnesto win NL Cy Young
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Steve Starr

Steve is one of the many Americans who spends Sunday watching football on the couch and gorging on delicious eats. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.

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