2021 MLB Props: Will Miguel Cabrera Reach 500 Home Runs and 3,000 Hits This Season?

  • BetUS has 2021 MLB Props on whether Miguel Cabrera reaches 3,000 hits and 500 home runs this season
  • Oddsmakers favor the Tigers legend to hit the 13 dingers he needs for 500 career homers
  • The future Hall of Famer is +110 to join the 3,000 hit club this year

Miguel Cabrera is just 13 home runs shy of 500 and 134 hits short of 3,000 entering the 2021 Major League Baseball season – reaching both marks would put the Venezuelan slugger in the exclusive 500 HR/3,000 hits club with Hank Aaron, Alex Rodriguez, Willie Mays, Rafael Palmeiro, Eddie Murray and Albert Pujols.

However, the soon-to-be 38-year-old has missed significant time with injuries in recent years. Let’s see whether oddsmakers believe Miggy can reach his important milestones in 2021.

Will Cabrera reach 3,000 hits this year?


Major League Baseball offers a ton of betting opportunities.  Find our MLB 2021 betting guide here.

Cabrera’s feeling healthy

Miguel Cabrera is almost even money (+110) to become the 33rd member of the 3,000 hit club. The two-time American League Most Valuable Player (2012, 2013) and Triple Crown Award winner (2012) needs only 134 hits this season to pay off the bet.

He had 139 hits in 136 games in 2019 and maintained a near hit-per-game pace (51 in 57 games) in the shortened 2020 year, so it should be close if he can stay healthy. And while a ruptured left biceps tendon cost Miggy most of the 2018 season, he played in 136 games in 2019 and in 57 of 58 last year.

Entering his 19th season with teammates who were in diapers when he made his Major League debut, Cabrera is reportedly feeling great.

“Right now, I feel like I did back when I was in 2014,” he said recently. “I feel more like when I was healthy, with my legs, my hips. I can move my body when hitting. I don’t try to do too much. I swing naturally. I think that’s going to help me a lot this year to produce more and hit for more power.”

Speaking of hitting with more power, let’s check the next prop…

Miguel Cabrerato reach 500 career HRs
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Miguel Cabrerato reach 3,000 career hits
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Will Cabrera reach 500 home runs in 2021?


Miggy’s power has declined

Cabrera needs to go deep 13 times this season to become the 28th member of the 500 home run club – and oddsmakers believe he’ll do it, listing him as -160 favorite to reach the milestone.

In 2020, a healthy Miggy paced the Tigers with 10 long flies in just 57 games. However, the future Hall of Famer only hit 12 in 136 contests in 2019, three in an injury-marred 2018 campaign and 16 in 130 games in 2017. He could also be at an increased chance of injury with the Tigers planning to play him at first base for the first time since summer 2019.

Still, if Cabrera is indeed feeling like his old self, 13 home runs isn’t a tall order for one of the all-time greats. In the offseason, he apparently talked to Nelson Cruz about his work habits and the 40-year-old Cruz is still one of the game’s top home run hitters.

We like Miggy to turn back the clock and have a vintage season that sees him reach 3,000 hits and 500 home runs. If that happens, don’t expect the Tigers legend to go out on top as the organization owes him $94-million guaranteed through the 2023 season.

Miguel Cabrerato retire at end of 2021 season
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Steve Starr

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