It is the final week of the 2021 MLB Regular series. From eye-popping performances from young superstars to a down to the wire playoff race – MLB has treated its fans well after last year’s condensed season. Today we shall focus on MLB betting picks for the September 28 series – the second last series of the year.
|To Win the Series||To Win the Series|
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
No series is more significant than the showdown in Toronto between the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees – after sweeping the Boston Red Sox hold the first AL Wild Card spot, the Blue Jays are a game between Boston for the second Wild Card spot.
The Yankees have struggled against the Toronto Blue Jays this season. They are 6-10 against their AL East rival. Most recently, the Yankees set a record for futility against the Jays. The Jays swept the Yankees in a four-game series in New York, where the Yankees never held a lead once during the four games.
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 27, 2021
The first game of the series features Hyun-jin Ryu for the Jays and James Taillon for the Yankees. Between Ryu’s 7.45 ERA at the Rogers Centre and Taillon’s 6.75 ERA against the Jays this season – you expect fireworks in game one. The MLB betting odds on the over will offer good value on the first game.
The Yankees send Gerrit Cole to the mound on Wednesday, while the Jays send their ace – Robbie Ray our AL Cy Young pick– to the hill on Thursday. This feels like a split – although the Jays have a better chance with Jose Berrios (3.50 ERA with the Jays) against Cole than the Yankees have with Corey Kluber (5.73 ERA since returning from injury) against the Ray.
The Blue Jays expand capacity to 30,000 for these games – so it will be rocking in Toronto. We like the Jays to take two of three to set up a wild final weekend.
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Boston could not be luckier to finish the season with a series against Baltimore followed by the lowly Washington Nationals. Boston has won 12 of their last 13 against the Orioles. They have scored at least six runs in six straight wins against Baltimore.
The Red Sox need to score and score early. Their bullpen is falling apart late in the season. Any team with quality starters can beat the Red Sox by keeping it close and beating up on their bullpen. Good thing they are playing the Orioles this week.
The Orioles have no pitching. They have by far the worst team ERA in the MLB at 5.84 (the worst by a team since 1999). That number is even worse at home at 6.12. Boston should get things right against Baltimore – hopefully using the series to sort out some of their bullpen issues before the Wild Card game (assuming to make it).
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball right now – winning a franchise-record 16 straight games. Yet, this series against the Milwaukee Brewers is low stakes for the MLB playoffs. The Cardinals need one more win to lock up the second NL Wild Card spot, while the Brewers have won the NL Central and are locked into the second seed.
The longest win streak in the NL since 1951. pic.twitter.com/abhyVX9dIQ
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 27, 2021
This series is all about pride and chasing history. The Cardinals are six wins away from the 2017 Cleveland Indians for matching the longest win streak in the modern era (1969 to present). Four of the wins during the streak came from a sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Brewers are the best team the Cardinals beat during their streak. They also limited the Brew Crew to only ten runs in the four losses. Can they do that again, even if the Brewers have little to play for? It will be a challenge. The Cardinals were lucky to beat the Brewers when Brandon Woodruff pitched. He limited the Cardinals to one run over six innings. However, the Brewers bats were flat, and they lost 2-1.
Woodruff goes against Wainwright in coin-flip game one (a game you should bet the under on). If Milwaukee hits just a bit better they can end the Cardinals streak. Once the streak ends, both clubs focus on playoff prep and split the last two games of the series. Brewers take the series.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
The two top teams in the American League play this week – with playoff seeding still up for grabs. The Astros are six back of the Rays and three up on the White Sox. The Astros chances of catching the Rays require them to win their final six games and the Rays drop their last six. The Astros also need one more win to clinch the AL West.
The Astros won the only series between these two teams this year. Houston outscored Tampa Bay 16-8 and is one of the few teams this season to outplay Tampa at the Trop in 2021.
Tampa Bay has allowed 120 more runs on the road this season (than at home). The Astros rank fifth in home batting average and second in AL ERA at home this season. The Rays are league-average in both categories on the road this season. Bet the Astros to take two of the three from the Rays.
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