Jason Flash
In our MLB series bets for September 17 to 19, we look at the series dictating the AL East Wild Card race, plus look around the rest of the MLB landscape to find the best MLB betting odds for the weekend.
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
In our MLB betting predictions last weekend, we predicted the Blue Jays to beat up on the Baltimore Orioles and take at least three of four. That prediction came true after the Blue Jays scored 44 runs in a 24-hour window. While the Minnesota Twins are better than the Baltimore Orioles, how can you bet against the Toronto Blue Jays?
Toronto enters the weekend against the Twins winners of their last six series (with a 16-4 record over that stretch). The group is getting it done in every aspect of the game. The hitting has topped eight runs eight times in their last 20 games. The pitching has limited teams to three runs or less 12 times in their last 20 games.
For the first time in franchise HISTORY, we have four players with 25+ homers and 90+ RBI 👏
🔹 Bo Bichette
🔹 Marcus Semien
🔹 Vlad Jr.
🔹 Teoscar Hernández pic.twitter.com/jWU33GYkZI— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 17, 2021
The Twins are over their heads against the Toronto Blue Jays. Even if Friday’s starter Hyun Jin Ryu is struggling lately, the team still wins when he takes the mound (8-3 despite his 5.00+ ERA since the All-Star break).
The other guys expected to start are Steven Matz and Jose Berrios. From the start of August, Matz has an ERA of 2.42, while limiting teams to a .616 OPS. Berrios, you can argue, is even better. After the team noticed he was tipping his pitches, he has been nearly unhittable – with a .192 batting average and 30 strikeouts in 27.1 innings. Bet on the Blue Jays.
Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees
Of the three AL East Wild Card hopefuls, the New York Yankees get the toughest opponent this weekend when they host the Cleveland Indians. However, with the playoffs out of reach and some of their best players out for the series – including their pitcher Shane Bieber – the Yankees should still win the series.
The starting pitching the Yankees should face this weekend is relatively weak. The only starter who is having a productive season is Aaron Civale. Civale is 10-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Overall decent numbers and maybe enough for Cleveland to steal a game.
However, the Yankees should take the other two games. They should start Gerrit Cole for the Sunday game. Cole is currently the favourite to win the Cy Young. Although, the race is close between him and Robbie Ray. Cole expects to face Eli Morgan. Morgan is 2-7 with a 6.03 ERA and -0.2 WAR.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
After the Blue Jays and Yankees beat up on the lowly Orioles, Boston gets its chance at AL’s worst team. Boston has beat up on the Orioles this season. After losing three against Baltimore in their first series of the 2021 season, it has been all Boston. In the following ten games against Baltimore, Boston is 9-1. They have outscored the Orioles 79 to 36 in those ten games.
Red Sox starters have a combined .328 BABIP this season. That is the 3rd highest by a MLB starting rotation in the 2000s. Defense unbelievably bad at turning balls in play into outs.
Eovaldi .320, Rodriguez .358, Pivetta .283, Richards .335, Perez .338, Houck .341, Sales .379
— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) September 16, 2021
There is not much else to say about this series. The Red Sox are a far superior team. While they are dealing with a Covid-19 issue yet just won the series against an “in the hunt” Seattle Mariners team. The only reason to think Baltimore takes a game in this series is Chris Sale is out. Who fills his start this weekend is not certain, but the other starters should carry the slack in the other two games.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The best weekend series features the two of three teams entering the weekend fighting for the second NL Wild Card spot. The St. Louis Cardinals are surging at the right time, leapfrogging the Padres and Cincinnati Reds to move into first in the Wild Card standings.
The Padres swept the Cardinals early in the season – outscoring them 23-10 over the three games. That was in May – when the Padres were 19-9 and looking like the best team in baseball. The Padres have fallen off since then – with a losing record in July, August, and so far in September.
What is hurting the Padres is a drop in their team pitching since the All-Star break. The Padres expect to start Pierce Johnson on Friday. Johnson is a quality reliever with one start in his career – where he pitched an inning and gave up a home run. He will face Kevin Gausman on Friday – who could receive Cy Young votes with his 2.65 ERA and over 200 strikeouts this season.
The Padres end the weekend against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is one of the best stories in the MLB this season. At 40 years old, he enters Sunday with a 16-7 record, 2.88 ERA, and an MLB-best three complete games. The Padres could use a healthy and productive Blake Snell right about now.
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