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First place in the AL East, the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in one of the most iconic rivalries in sports history. Baseball fans are spoiled by not one but two series between the historic baseball clubs in the next week. The Red Sox have struggled to win close games as manager Alex Cora faces the music of frustrated fans. Read on for an expert Red Sox vs Yankees betting prediction and explore stats and tips for Yankees-Red Sox best bets.
- Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
- Friday, June 6, 2025
- 7:05 PM EST
- Yankee Stadium, the Bronx, New York
- NESN, Fubo, Sling TV, YES Network, MLB.TV
Red Sox vs Yankees Betting Odds
The Yankees are the favorites, unsurprisingly, for the first game of the weekend. The hosts are (-160) to win, good for an implied probability to win of 61.5%. The underdog Red Sox will look to get a punch in early on in the series at odds of (+145). The total is set at 9.5.
MLB 
Red Sox +145 +138 +138 Yankees -160 -164 -164 Over 9.5 +100 +100 +100 Under 9.5 -120 -130 -130
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Yankees Off to Hot Start Despite Losing Juan Soto
After seeing Juan Soto depart for the Mets in free agency this summer, one would be excused to have expected a decline in performance. Yet the Yankees are right back where they left off in 2024, their most successful season in over a decade. New York won the AL pennant before losing to the star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series. Now the Yankees (37-23) have a better win percentage than last year’s champs (37-25).
A big storyline for the Yankees at the beginning of the year was their ingenious use of what have now been dubbed “torpedo bats.” These specially designed bats place the thickest part of the wood closer to the middle, where players make the most contact. This change differs from a traditional baseball bat design that is shaped more like a club with the thickest wood at the end.
Is the Red Sox Bad Season Just Bad Luck?
An 11-9 comeback victory over the Los Angeles Angels was the lone bright spot in a challenging week for the Red Sox. Boston had lost three of four going into the Wednesday matinee as frustration set in. Manager Alex Cora facetiously placed the blame on himself while noting several errors made defensively. Such vague public admonishment of his players was a sign the noise might be getting to him.
Boston fans are notorious for their high expectations and don’t shy away from voicing their opinions. Cora’s media outburst, if you will, is a symptom of the pressure he may feel after a strong offseason gave many Red Sox fans confidence their club would return to the playoffs. Investments into pitching, fielding and batting alike have failed to materialize through the first 64 games.
Third baseman Alex Bregman fell to injury while Walker Buehler has seen a dip in form. Trevor Story hasn’t found his bat yet either after returning from his ailment. A few new faces are proving their worth, however. Garrett Crochet has been lights out in the ace position and Aroldis Chapman has filled the Kenley Jansen-sized hole at closer perfectly.
For those who enjoy tidbits of trivia, Wednesday’s 9th-inning blast by Cedanne Rafaela broke the record for shortest walk-off home run on record. The fly ball snaked just past the famous Pesky Pole in right field, hitting a fan’s leg and landing just over the wall.
The 308-foot hit was 24 feet shorter than the next-closest walk-off HR. It was also the second-shortest home run in the Statcast era, with a 307-footer also hit at Fenway. Rafaela became the youngest Red Sox player to ever hit a walk-off home run in the past 25 years.
Red Sox vs Yankees Betting Prediction
From a historical betting perspective, it is financially beneficial to target underdogs on the road against divisional opponents when the total is high. In this case, a total of 9.5 with the Red Sox playing the role of road underdog fits that system. Additionally, the Red Sox have been one of the unluckiest teams in baseball when you look at multiple different metrics.
Pythagorean expectation is a formula devised by the legendary statistician Bill James. It determines how many games a team “should” have won based on their runs scored and runs scored against. The Red Sox are underperforming compared to their Pythagorean expectation by 3 wins.
A more modern version of this is BaseRuns, which uses the probabilities of runners scoring from each base they are left on. In this calculation, the Red Sox should actually have a record of 36-28, 6 wins above their current number. All this leads to the notion that the Red Sox will likely also be undervalued by betting markets. It’s worth noting the Yankees are also underperforming, but to a lesser degree.
I can’t help but think there is value on the Red Sox until their record begins to catch up to their underlying statistics. Irrespective of the pitching matchup, I believe this is a closer matchup than many will believe. Go with the Red Sox moneyline at (+145), available at BetOnline.
Odds are accurate at time of writing but subject to change.
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