2021 MLB Home Run Derby Picks

  • BetOnline lists Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani as a +240 favorite to win the 2021 MLB Home Run Derby
  • Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has decided to skip the annual event 
  • The Home Run Derby begins at 8 p.m. ET on Monday from Coors Field in Denver, Colorado

What happens when you put eight of baseball’s greatest sluggers in the mile-high altitude of Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly park in the Majors, and ask them to crush some dingers? We’re about to find out.

The eight-man field for Monday’s Home Run Derby includes reigning champ Pete Alonso of the Mets, the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani, the Rockies’ Trevor Story, the Nationals’ Juan Soto, the Rangers’ Joey Gallo, the Orioles’ Trey Mancini, the A’s Matt Olson and the Royals’ Salvador Perez.

Let’s check the latest odds for the event, and as always, be sure to refer to our MLB 2021 betting guide for further wagering tips and advice.

Home Run Derby Odds

BetOnline
Shohei Ohtani+240
Joey Gallo+385
Pete Alonso+500
Matt Olson+600
Trevor Story+800
Juan Soto+900
Salvador Perez+900
Trey Mancini+1000

Shohei Ohtani is the Derby favorite

Shohei Ohtani (+240), who on Tuesday will become the first player ever to serve as both a pitcher and a position player in the All-Star Game, is the favorite for Monday’s event. Leading the league with 33 homers and on pace to become the first player to top 60 homers in 20 years, the Japanese superstar is the Derby’s No. 1 seed and will face off against Juan Soto (+900) in the first round.

To remind you of the Derby format, it’s a single-elimination bracket system with three rounds total. Batters have three minutes per round in the first and second rounds and two minutes in the final round. After the first round, the winner of the Ohtani-Soto matchup will meet the winner of Salvador Perez (+900) and Pete Alonso (+500).

Alonso only has 15 long flies this season, but he ranks 11th in average exit velocity and has experience in the event, beating Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 23-22 in the final round back in 2019.

He would become only the third player to win the Derby twice, after Yoenis Céspedes and Ken Griffey Jr., who won three times.

Shohei Ohtanito win Home Run Derby
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+240
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Pete Alonsoto win Home Run Derby
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+500
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Breaking down the field

On the other side of the bracket, the Joey Gallo (+385) will take on Trevor Story (+800) with the winner facing the Matt Olson (+600) vs. Trey Mancini (+1000) victor. Scorching hot of late with ten dingers in a recent ten-game span, Gallo ranks second among Derby competitors with 23 home runs. While he’s somehow never been in the event before, the Rangers outfielder is known for his prodigious power.

Olson hit 36 home runs in just 127 games in 2019, and he is on pace to set a new career high in 2021. With a smooth, looping swing that’s seemingly perfect for Coors Field, the A’s first baseman could surprise on Monday night.

Story only has 11 homers this season but he hit 37 in 2018 and 35 in 2019, and the Rockies shortstop will have the hometown fans in Denver behind him.

Still, we’re betting on Shohei Ohtani (+240 at BetOnline) to add another chapter to a magical season that will almost certainly land him the AL MVP.

Matt Olsonto win Home Run Derby
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+600
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Steve Dominey

Steve has almost 15 years of experience in marketing, PR and sports television. After acquiring a Journalism degree from Carleton University, he assembled highlight packs for Canada's most-watched sports network (TSN) before transitioning to a career in communications. He describes himself as a good father, great dog owner, and mediocre gambler and husband.