- BetUS gives Pete Alonso (+900) and Mike Trout (+1000) the best odds of leading the majors in home runs in 2021
- Reds star Eugenio Suarez (+1400) is aiming for 50 dingers after dropping 15 pounds
- MVP candidates Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1800) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (+2500) should continue to improve their power numbers
Five of the six seasons with the highest home run rates in baseball history have occurred since the start of 2016, but there could be a power outage this summer with the recent news that Major League Baseball will be adjusting this year’s balls to have slightly reduced weight and slightly decreased bounciness.
With the season starting in under a month, let’s see which mashers are favored to hit the longest balls in 2021.
2021 MLB Most Home Runs Odds
|Ronald Acuna Jr.||+1800|
|Fernando Tatis Jr.||+2500|
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Bombs away for Pete Alonso?
Pete Alonso (+900) is favored to be this year’s home run king after leading the majors with 53 dingers in his 2019 rookie campaign and blasting a respectable 16 in the shortened 2020 season. Right behind him is four-time AL MVP Mike Trout (+1000), who smashed a career-best 45 homers in 2019 and was close to that pace last year with 17 long flies in 53 games.
Joey Gallo (+1300) had back-to-back years with 41 and 40 round-trippers in 2017 and 2018 and, after a miserable 2020, is red hot in spring training with three home runs in three contests. Injuries make Aaron Judge (+1400) tough to bet on. The Yankees slugger hasn’t played 120 games in a season since blasting 52 long balls in his 2017 rookie campaign.
— New York Post (@nypost) March 5, 2021
The last man to pace the majors in homers in consecutive seasons was Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011, so don’t expect a repeat performance from Yankees’ first baseman Luke Voit (+1400), who led the league with 22 homers in 56 games last year. After dropping 15 pounds by cutting beef, pasta, rice, and beer from his diet, Eugenio Suarez (+1400) says he’s “going for 50 homers”. The Venezuelan hit an ugly .202 last year but hit 49 bombs in 2019.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1800) blasted 26 dingers at age 20, 41 as a 21-year-old, and 14 in just 46 games last year, so there’s plenty of reason to believe the 23-year-old superstar can take it to another level for the Braves this summer.
Fellow MVP candidate Fernando Tatis Jr. (+2500) also has the power to get the job done. He swatted the fourth-most long-flies in MLB in 2020 (17), leading the majors in average exit velocity (95.9 MPH), hard-hit rate (62.2%), and barrels (32).
Ronald Acuña Jr. hit 41 home runs in 2019 and is projected to hit 40+ in 2021 by multiple projection systems
Here’s the list he’d join if he has another 40-HR season:
Most 40-HR seasons, Braves franchise history:
Henry Aaron: 8
Eddie Mathews: 4
Andruw Jones: 2 pic.twitter.com/TvL1FJQlr1
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) February 27, 2021
Sticking with the “juniors”, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+6000) dropped 42 pounds this offseason and is just turning 22 next week, so there’s always a chance the much-ballyhooed prospect starts blasting balls out of the yard in 2021.
Finally, former NL MVP Christian Yelich (+3000) looks like a strong value given he hit 90 homers between the 2018 and 2019 campaigns. The Brewers slugger slumped last season with a .205 average and 12 swats in 58 games, but he’s still just 29 years old.
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