- BetUS favors Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole (+1000) to have the Most Wins in the majors in 2021
- Former Cy Young winners Jacob deGrom (+1100) and Trevor Bauer (+1200) should enjoy more run support this season
- Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff (+3000) could be poised for a breakout campaign
‘Wins’ has become a dirty word when discussing what pitcher should win the Cy Young Award each season, but underlying analytics won’t help you cash out this particular bet.
With Opening Day just hours away, let’s see who oddsmakers favor to lead Major League Baseball in wins in 2021 and examine which hurlers have the best shot of racking up victories. You should also check out our MLB 2021 betting guide for further wagering tips and advice.
Most MLB Pitcher Wins Odds
Gerrit Cole is a slight favorite over deGrom
Gerrit Cole (+1000) once went unbeaten in 28 starts over a year span (May 27, 2019, to Aug. 19, 2020), so the man knows how to win baseball games.
However, while the 30-year-old pitched impressively, any nerd will tell you that run support is critical to a starter’s W-L record. For instance, two-time Cy Young winner Jacob DeGrom (+1100) actually posted a better ERA (1.91 vs 1.97) than Cole over that same time frame, yet his record was 10-3 while Cole’s was 20-0.
MIKE LUPICA | Now there is the Amazin’ Jacob deGrom, who won two consecutive Cy Young Awards and nearly won a third last season, who has become as much the main event as a starting pitcher as Seaver and Gooden were before him. @MikeLupica https://t.co/H2lsVSrPrF
— NY Daily News Sports (@NYDNSports) March 30, 2021
After spending big in free agency, the Mets’ wins total of 90 compares favorably with the Yankees’ 96 total at BetUS, so deGrom should enjoy better run support and compete with Cole for the most wins in baseball.
Oddsmakers also expect reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer (+1200) to be in the mix after his move from the Cincinnati Reds, who finished just above .500 (31-29) last year, to the World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, who led the majors with 43 wins in 2020.
Best Longshot Bets
Bauer’s teammate Walker Buehler (+1800) could be the better value on the Dodgers – the 26-year-old stud is just a season removed from a 14-4 W-L record. The Padres have the second-highest win total (94.5) in baseball, making both Yu Darvish (+1800) and Blake Snell (+2000) excellent plays.
Atlanta’s Max Fried (+2200) maintained a perfect 7-0 record last season and while negative regression is probably coming, the Braves are once again expected to be one of the best team’s in the National League with 91.5 wins total.
Max Fried earns the Opening Day start and some major praise from a Braves legend https://t.co/didfhciYzD
— The Athletic Atlanta (@TheAthleticATL) March 26, 2021
The Tampa Rays are expected to take a step back this season, but betting on 27-year-old Tyler Glasnow at +3000 could be a wise investment if the big righthander can stay healthy.
Brandon Woodruff (+3000) went 3-5 for the Brewers in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, but his underlying numbers were actually better than his 2019 season when he went 11-3. The 28-year-old breakout candidate tied for the NL lead with 13 starts last year, compiling a 3.05 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings.
See below the top sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you: