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- What: 2025 Australian Grand Prix
- Date: Friday, October 17-19, 2025
- Location: Phillips Island Circuit
- Where: Victoria, Australia
This weekend’s Australian Grand Prix at Phillip Island promises to be one of the most unpredictable races in MotoGP history.
Newly crowned world champion Marc Marquez is recovering from shoulder surgery, and several other top contenders are also sidelined. The field is wide open at one of motorcycle racing’s iconic circuits.
The Missing Stars
The absence of frontrunners has turned a predictable race into an open contest. Marc Marquez, the defending Australian GP winner, suffered a fractured shoulder and will not race until Malaysia at the earliest. Jorge Martin, the 2024 champion who owns the Phillip Island lap record, is also out with a fractured collarbone.
The front row from Phillip Island in 2024 are all injured and missing the race this year 😔#MotoGP #AustralianGP pic.twitter.com/xeSGJ595v2
— Crash MotoGP (@crash_motogp) October 14, 2025
He has qualified on pole here for three consecutive years. Maverick Vinales, the 2018 winner, remains sidelined from a shoulder injury sustained in Germany. Moto2 champion Ai Ogura must pass a medical check after a terrifying 260km/h crash at Misano.
The absence of these frontrunners significantly alters this year’s dynamic: together, they account for 13 world championships and last year’s entire Australian GP front row, underscoring just how unpredictable the race has become.
Weather
Weather forecasts show possible showers on Friday and Sunday, with winds up to 50 km/h expected on race day. The 13-lap sprint takes place on Saturday at 3:00 p.m. AEDT, with Sunday’s 27-lap Grand Prix at 2:00 p.m.
Three replacement riders will compete. Michele Pirro will replace Marc Marquez at Ducati, Pol Espargaro will replace Vinales at KTM for the third time this season, and Lorenzo Savadori will take Martin’s Aprilia seat for the 11th race.
With the established order upended by injuries, Sunday’s winner will emerge from memory’s most open Australian Grand Prix field. Whether it’s a resurgent veteran, a breakthrough rookie, or a local hero, one thing is sure: they’ll have earned it on one of motorcycle racing’s most demanding stages.
Before we look at the betting breakdown and picks for the 2025 Australian GP, check out the best sites for MotoGP betting and our betting picks for the 2025 MotoGP Championship.
2025 Australian MotoGP Odds
| To Win 2025 Australian Moto GP |  |  |  |
| Francesco Bagnaia | +400 | +400 | +400 |
| Alex Marquez | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Marco Bezzecchi | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Fermin Aldeguer | +1500 | +1500 | +1500 |
| Jack Miller | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Pedro Acosta | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Fabio Di Giannantonio | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Enea Bastianini | +2800 | +2800 | +2800 |
| Fabio Quartararo | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Franco Morbidelli | +3500 | +3500 | +3500 |
| Brad Binder | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Johann Zarco | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Raul Fernandez | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Joan Mir | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Luca Marini | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Alex Rins | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Miguel Oliveira | +25000 | +25000 | +25000 |
| Lorenzo Savadori | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 |
Alex Marquez
Alex Marquez can achieve something extraordinary this weekend: cementing second place in the 2025 championship behind his brother Marc.
This would create an unprecedented sibling 1-2. The 29-year-old Gresini Ducati rider holds an 88-point lead over Francesco Bagnaia. He needs to maintain a 111-point advantage to seal the runner-up position.
Marc Marquez is reportedly “fine”, according to younger brother Alex, and is focusing on his recovery after a crash in Indonesia instead of looking ahead to his MotoGP return ⤵️https://t.co/k1I2u27XbD
— Motorsport (@Motorsport) October 16, 2025
This milestone comes in a season of highs and lows for Alex, who won his first premier-class races this year at Jerez and Catalunya. However, the celebration will be bittersweet, as Marc remains in Spain recovering from surgery after his collision with Marco Bezzecchi in Indonesia.
I would absolutely wager on Alex Marquez in this race.
Francesco Bagnaia
Marc Marquez’s absence from the Australian Grand Prix presents both an opportunity and a risk for Francesco Bagnaia.
Pre-season expectations suggested Bagnaia would be the automatic favorite whenever Marquez was sidelined. However, Bagnaia’s wildly inconsistent 2025 season has shattered that logic.
Recent rounds suggest that Marquez’s absence may make little difference to Bagnaia’s results: he dominated Marquez at Motegi (although Marc was focused on clinching the title), but was nowhere near competitive at Mandalika.
Francesco Bagnaia may not be too happy when he hears what Ducati chief Davide Tardozzi has just had to say at the #MotoGP #AustralianGP…https://t.co/svpeFY61It
— Kyle Archer (@KyleG51) October 17, 2025
Bagnaia denied on Thursday that Ducati’s focus on Marquez has caused his struggles, instead pointing to the bike’s inconsistency. “The same bike in Motegi was working super-well, and the
With test rider Michele Pirro substituting for Marquez, Bagnaia effectively has the Ducati garage to himself this weekend.
This could provide crucial benefits with the post-Valencia test, which kicks off the 2026 season, only a month away. Any additional influence Bagnaia gains, or evidence he produces of what he can achieve when the bike suits him, could significantly impact next year’s development direction.
Bagnaia is the favorite in this race for a reason, he’s worth a wager.
Marco Bezzecchi
Marco Bezzecchi, one of the season’s in-form riders, has podiums in seven of the past 11 rounds. After taking out Marc Marquez in Indonesia, he received a double long-lap penalty for Sunday’s race.
The Aprilia rider admitted that he had misjudged the corner and the speed difference. He simply ran into the back of Marquez at Turn 7.
Marco Bezzecchi tops #AustralianGP practice with a new all-time lap record, 1:26.492 🔥
💥 0.8s faster than the previous best!
🏁 11 riders broke the track record
⚡ 15 riders covered within 1 secondA strong start to the weekend for the Michelin Power range 💪#MichelinMotoGP pic.twitter.com/due8FNjgKb
— Michelin Motorsport (@Michelin_Sport) October 17, 2025
Despite winning the Indonesian sprint from pole, Bezzecchi’s penalty and lingering pain from the crash will hamper his chances of victory. Aprilia has never finished better than eighth at this circuit.
As tempting as it is to grab the +1100 odds for Bezzecchi, I’ll pass on him at this circuit.
Jack Miller
Australia’s Jack Miller reaches a historic landmark this weekend. He becomes the first Australian to start 250 Grand Prix races across all classes.
The 30-year-old Pramac Yamaha rider believes Phillip Island’s characteristics could suit his struggling machinery. “I feel like there is a big chance. Everyone will be feeling that coming into this one,” Miller said.
0.754 faster than Jorge Martin's 2023 lap record 😮💨 Marco Bezzecchi and Aprilia 🔥#MotoGP #AustralianGP pic.twitter.com/OKzR4zybUh
— Crash MotoGP (@crash_motogp) October 17, 2025
His best Island result was third in 2019. After a frustrating season, where his best result came in round three, Miller needs a strong home showing.
Miller’s absolutely a fun one to sprinkle on at 20-1 odds.
See below the top offshore sportsbooks where you can wager online and choose the best one for you:
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