Elliott favored for Championship, but value lies elsewhere at Phoenix

Well folks, it’s finally here, the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 race, and here’s our free NASCAR betting picks on this Sunday’s big race from Phoenix Raceway.

There’s now just four drivers who can win the championship. Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, and Chase Elliott. Last Sunday at Martinsville we saw these four drivers qualify for the Championship 4 race, eliminating Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Briscoe in the process.

Christopher Bell won the race. This was the second time Bell won the final playoff race to make it through to the next round, having done the same thing in the final Round of 12 race at Charlotte on October 9th.

But it wasn’t Bell that took all the headlines, as Ross Chastain’s move to overtake Denny Hamlin (and numerous other cars) made the biggest splash. In danger of elimination, Chastain decided to throw caution to the wind and used the wall to keep him on the track as he went into full throttle using fifth gear (something rarely done on these sized tracks) to blast his way into the championship 4 race.

Most were amazed at what they saw, although not everyone, as Kyle Larson described the move as “embarrassing.”

Who is favorite to win the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series?

Regardless of all that, we now have four drivers in with a chance of winning the Cup Series. In the betting to win the Cup Championship, the best NASCAR betting sites make Chase Ellliott their +200 favorite. Following Elliott is Christopher Bell at +250, with Joey Logano at +300, and Ross Chastain at +325.

Those aren’t the odds to win the race on Sunday, just the Cup Series. The odds to win the race can be found below.

Betting to win the Championship 4 Race

As the above four drivers are all going for the Cup Series Championship, they’re odds are also extremely short to win the race.

  • What; Cup Series Championship 4
  • Where; Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, Arizona
  • When; Sunday, November 6th, 2022
  • Green Flag; 3 pm ET
  • Laps; 312
  • Distance; 500 KM (312 Miles)
Championship 4 Winner BettingBetOnline ReviewBovada Review
Chase Elliott+225+225
Christopher Bell+375+375
Joey Logano+450+425
Ross Chastain+500+475
Kyle Larson+1100+1100
Denny Hamlin+1600+1600
Ryan Blaney+1800+1600
Kevin Harvick+2200+200
Martin Truex Jr+2500+2600
William Byron+2500+2800
Kevin Harvick+2500+2800
Chase Briscoe+2500+2500
Tyler Reddick+3300+2800

In the betting to win the actual race, Elliott is again the favorite, this time at +225. He is followed by Bell at +375, Logano at +450, and Chastain at +500. After those four it’s Kyle Larson at +1100. The above odds are provided by BetOnline, you can read more about this bookmaker in our BetOnline sportsbook review. Now, onto our NASCAR picks.

Championship 4 Race Betting Picks

Even though there are 36 drivers on the entry list for this race, it’s the four championship qualified drivers who are the shortest in the betting.

This is because team orders will be at play, and this theory is backed up by the fact that in the last eight years (since the single race Championship 4 format was introduced) a championship 4 qualified driver has won this race.

Now this doesn’t mean it will always be the case. And as we’ve seen in this crazy NASCAR season, anything can happen. So as well as my main pick, I’m also going to name a floating outside pick to win this race.

Main Pick; Christopher Bell +375

For my main NASCAR betting pick, there can only be one driver. Yes, he might not have pulled off a ridiculous move at Martinsville, but that’s because he didn’t need to. The real man of the moment and the only pick that can be made for this race is Christopher Bell.

Bell has won the final playoff race in the last two rounds. He just seems to be able to pull a performance out of the bag when he needs it. Bell has also won at New Hampshire, and finished second at Richmond, two tracks very similar to Phoenix. He looks a natural on 1-mile long circuits.

Christopher BellTo win NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 Race
Bet now

Floating Pick; Kyle Larson +1100

Immediately after being knocked out of the Cup Series playoffs at Charlotte, Larson had a DNF at Vegas. But since then he has won at Homestead and finished second last weekend at Martinsville. He seems to have got that edge back again, albeit too late to defend the Cup Series he won last season.

As we saw earlier in the year, Larson isn’t afraid to upset his teammate Chase Elliott either. After a maneuver to win the race at the Glen back in August, Larson admitted that he anticipated having words with Elliott about it. That weekend Larson showed his ruthless streak, the sort that saw him win the Cup Series in 2021.

The defending champ also has a more than vested interest in this race, as he is fighting to win the Owners’ Championship. Can anyone really see Larson foregoing his chance of a win for someone else? I’m struggling too as well.

It’s actually the case that a 1-2 finish in either order for Larson and Elliott would see them win both the owners’ and the drivers’ championships.

But the facts are that Chase Elliott has gone off the boil somewhat since his last win at Talladega at the start of October. He may even be well out of the reckoning this weekend. Therefore, I have no hesitation in making Kyle Larson my betting pick at the excellent odds of +1100.

Kyle LarsonTo win NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 Race
Bet now
Dean Etheridge

Hailing from Coventry, England, Dean brings his British wit to every piece he pens. A true lover of a good wager, Dean's passion for both sports and writing has merged into the world of sports betting. Dean is the mastermind behind his very own soccer and cricket betting platforms. As the owner and editor of a renowned football betting website, Dean has established himself as a force within the industry. His expertise as a freelance content writer is centered in the realms of football, cricket and Formula 1. From breaking down odds to unraveling strategies, Dean's writing radiates an unmatched love for sports. When he’s not immersed in sports betting, Dean enjoyes exploring new culinary delights, conquering the latest car racing video games, or getting lost in the pages of a novel.